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Accurately and efficiently estimating system performance under uncertainty is paramount in power system planning and operation. Monte Carlo simulation is often used for this purpose, but convergence may be slow, especially when detailed…

Computation · Statistics 2020-10-23 Simon Tindemans , Goran Strbac

We consider the application of multilevel Monte Carlo methods to steady state Darcy flow in a random porous medium, described mathematically by elliptic partial differential equations with random coefficients. The levels in the multilevel…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-06-16 Minho Park , Aretha Teckentrup

Multifidelity Monte Carlo methods often rely on a preprocessing phase consisting of standard Monte Carlo sampling to estimate correlation coefficients between models of different fidelity to determine the weights and number of samples for…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2021-06-29 Todd A. Oliver , Christopher S. Simmons , Robert D. Moser

Generative diffusion models have recently emerged as a powerful strategy to perform stochastic sampling in Bayesian inverse problems, delivering remarkably accurate solutions for a wide range of challenging applications. However, diffusion…

Computation · Statistics 2025-05-15 Abdul-Lateef Haji-Ali , Marcelo Pereyra , Luke Shaw , Konstantinos Zygalakis

This paper considers a new approach to using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in contexts where one may adopt multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo. The underlying problem is to approximate expectations w.r.t. an underlying probability measure that is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-06-27 Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Yaxian Xu

We propose efficient numerical algorithms for approximating statistical solutions of scalar conservation laws. The proposed algorithms combine finite volume spatio-temporal approximations with Monte Carlo and multi-level Monte Carlo…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-11-01 Ulrik Skre Fjordholm , Kjetil Lye , Siddhartha Mishra

Statisticians often use Monte Carlo methods to approximate probability distributions, primarily with Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. Sequential Monte Carlo samplers are a class of algorithms that combine both techniques to…

Computation · Statistics 2022-06-20 Chenguang Dai , Jeremy Heng , Pierre E. Jacob , Nick Whiteley

We introduce a class of Monte Carlo estimators that aim to overcome the rapid growth of variance with dimension often observed for standard estimators by exploiting the target's independence structure. We identify the most basic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-11-02 Juan Kuntz , Francesca R. Crucinio , Adam M. Johansen

We consider stochastic optimization when one only has access to biased stochastic oracles of the objective and the gradient, and obtaining stochastic gradients with low biases comes at high costs. This setting captures various optimization…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-08-22 Yifan Hu , Jie Wang , Xin Chen , Niao He

This paper proposes a new multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for the ergodic SDEs which do not satisfy the contractivity condition. By introducing the change of measure technique, we simulate the path with contractivity and add the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-12-11 Wei Fang , Michael B. Giles

Monte Carlo (MC) sampling is a popular method for estimating the statistics (e.g. expectation and variance) of a random variable. Its slow convergence has led to the emergence of advanced techniques to reduce the variance of the MC…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-21 Mohamed Reda El Amri , Paul Mycek , Sophie Ricci , Matthias De Lozzo

This paper addresses optimization problems constrained by partial differential equations with uncertain coefficients. In particular, the robust control problem and the average control problem are considered for a tracking type cost…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-11-08 Andreas Van Barel , Stefan Vandewalle

Sequential Monte Carlo methods which involve sequential importance sampling and resampling are shown to provide a versatile approach to computing probabilities of rare events. By making use of martingale representations of the sequential…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-02-22 Hock Peng Chan , Tze Leung Lai

Monte Carlo (MC) sampling algorithms are an extremely widely-used technique to estimate expectations of functions f(x), especially in high dimensions. Control variates are a very powerful technique to reduce the error of such estimates, but…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-08 Brendan D. Tracey , David H. Wolpert

Monte Carlo algorithms are a foundational pillar of modern computational science, yet their effective application hinges on a deep understanding of their performance trade offs. This paper presents a critical analysis of the evolution of…

Computation · Statistics 2025-12-23 Ravi Prasad

In this paper, we propose a new kind of numerical scheme for high-dimensional backward stochastic differential equations based on modified multi-level Picard iteration. The proposed scheme is very similar to the original multi-level Picard…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-05-06 Chol-Kyu Pak , Mun-Chol Kim , Hun O

Nested integration problems arise in various scientific and engineering applications, including Bayesian experimental design, financial risk assessment, and uncertainty quantification. These nested integrals take the form $\int f\left(\int…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-06-17 Arved Bartuska , André Gustavo Carlon , Luis Espath , Sebastian Krumscheid , Raúl Tempone

Monte Carlo method is a broad class of computational algorithms that rely on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results. They are often used in physical and mathematical problems and are most useful when it is difficult or…

Computation · Statistics 2018-09-28 Bochao Jia

We propose a multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for the Bayesian inference of random field parameters in PDEs using high-resolution data. Compared to existing multilevel MCMC methods, we additionally consider level-dependent…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-08-19 Pieter Vanmechelen , Geert Lombaert , Giovanni Samaey

We combine a generic method for finding fast orthogonal transforms for a given quasi-Monte Carlo integration problem with the multilevel Monte Carlo method. It is shown by example that this combined method can vastly improve the efficiency…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-08-11 Christian Irrgeher , Gunther Leobacher