Related papers: From Likelihood to Plausibility
Dempster-Shafer evidence theory is a powerful tool in information fusion. When the evidence are highly conflicting, the counter-intuitive results will be presented. To adress this open issue, a new method based on evidence distance of…
Robust Bayesian analysis has been mainly devoted to detecting and measuring robustness w.r.t. the prior distribution. Many contributions in the literature aim to define suitable classes of priors which allow the computation of variations of…
The concept of typicality refers to properties holding for the "overwhelming majority" of cases and is a fundamental idea of the qualitative approach to dynamical problems. We argue that measure-theoretical typicality would be the adequate…
Bayesian analysis plays a crucial role in estimating distribution of unknown parameters for given data and model. Due to the curse of dimensionality, it becomes difficult for high-dimensional problems, especially when multiple modes exist.…
Behavioural economics provides labels for patterns in human economic behaviour. Probability weighting is one such label. It expresses a mismatch between probabilities used in a formal model of a decision (i.e. model parameters) and…
Often the rows (cases, objects) of a dataset have weights. For instance, the weight of a case may reflect the number of times it has been observed, or its reliability. For analyzing such data many rowwise weighted techniques are available,…
The plausibility of uncommon events and miracles based on testimony of such an event has been much discussed. When analyzing the probabilities involved, it has mostly been assumed that the common events can be taken as data in the…
In this paper, we show that the likelihood-ratio measure (a) is invariant with respect to dominating sigma-finite measures, (b) satisfies logical consequences which are not satisfied by standard $p$-values, (c) respects frequentist…
We propose the density ratio permutation test, a hypothesis test that assesses whether the ratio between two densities is proportional to a known function based on independent samples from each distribution. The test uses an efficient…
The Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence accumulation is one of the main tools for combining data obtained from multiple sources. In this paper a special case of combination of two bodies of evidence with non-zero conflict coefficient is…
Computing the probability of a formula given the probabilities or weights associated with other formulas is a natural extension of logical inference to the probabilistic setting. Surprisingly, this problem has received little attention in…
Likelihood functions are ubiquitous in data analyses at the LHC and elsewhere in particle physics. Partly because "probability" and "likelihood" are virtual synonyms in everyday English, but crucially distinct in data analysis, there is…
The likelihood function plays a pivotal role in statistical inference; it is adaptable to a wide range of models and the resultant estimators are known to have good properties. However, these results hinge on correct specification of the…
We propose new goodness-of-fit tests for the Poisson distribution. The testing procedure entails fitting a weighted Poisson distribution, which has the Poisson as a special case, to observed data. Based on sample data, we calculate an…
Reliability is an essential measure of how closely observed scores represent latent scores (reflecting constructs), assuming some latent variable measurement model. We present a general theoretical framework of reliability, placing emphasis…
Multi-sensor data fusion technology plays an important role in real applications. Because of the flexibility and effectiveness in modelling and processing the uncertain information regardless of prior probabilities, Dempster-Shafer evidence…
There has not been an established mathematical measure of evidence. Some Bayesians have argued that probability can be an objectively correct measure of ``rational degrees of belief,'' which we do not distinguish from evidence. However,…
In this paper, we demonstrate that a new measure of evidence we developed called the Dempster-Shafer p-value which allow for insights and interpretations which retain most of the structure of the p-value while covering for some of the…
Motivated by the forensic problem of determining the strength of evidence of a continuously distributed measurement of evidence, in the situation of composite hypotheses of the prosecutor and the defence concerning a parameter of a…
Given a model in algebraic statistics and some data, the likelihood function is a rational function on a projective variety. Algebraic algorithms are presented for computing all critical points of this function, with the aim of identifying…