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Treatment effect estimation is a fundamental problem in causal inference. We focus on designing efficient randomized controlled trials, to accurately estimate the effect of some treatment on a population of $n$ individuals. In particular,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-14 Raghavendra Addanki , David Arbour , Tung Mai , Cameron Musco , Anup Rao

To maximize clinical benefit, clinicians routinely tailor treatment to the individual characteristics of each patient, where individualized treatment rules are needed and are of significant research interest to statisticians. In the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-23 Trinetri Ghosh , Yanyuan Ma , Rui Song , Pingshou Zhong

Individualized treatment rules aim to identify if, when, which, and to whom treatment should be applied. A globally aging population, rising healthcare costs, and increased access to patient-level data have created an urgent need for…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-04 Ying-Qi Zhao , Eric B. Laber , Yang Ning , Sumona Saha , Bruce Sands

Randomized experimentation (also known as A/B testing or bucket testing) is widely used in the internet industry to measure the metric impact obtained by different treatment variants. A/B tests identify the treatment variant showing the…

This study proposes a method to identify treatment effects without exclusion restrictions in randomized experiments with noncompliance. Exploiting a baseline survey commonly available in randomized experiments, I decompose the…

General Economics · Economics 2021-06-03 Masayuki Sawada

We propose new, optimal methods for analyzing randomized trials, when it is suspected that treatment effects may differ in two predefined subpopulations. Such sub-populations could be defined by a biomarker or risk factor measured at…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-26 Michael Rosenblum , Han Liu , and En-Hsu Yen

We consider planning longitudinal covariate measurements in follow-up studies where covariates are time-varying. We assume that the entire cohort cannot be selected for longitudinal measurements due to financial limitations and study how a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-03 Jaakko Reinikainen , Juha Karvanen

We propose a novel personalized concept for the optimal treatment selection for a situation where the response is a multivariate vector, that could contain right-censored variables such as survival time. The proposed method can be applied…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-03 Chathura Siriwardhana , K. B. Kulasekera , Somnath Datta

Decision-makers frequently must choose a single action from a finite set of alternatives -- for example, physicians selecting a treatment, investors choosing a portfolio risk level, or judges determining sentences. To improve outcomes,…

Applications · Statistics 2026-05-19 Raphaël Langevin

We study the subtlety of optimal paternalism when a utilitarian planner has the power to design a discrete choice set for a heterogeneous population with bounded rationality. We first consider the planning problem in abstraction. We show…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-23 Charles F. Manski , Eytan Sheshinski

Randomized controlled trials are often run in settings with many subpopulations that may have differential benefits from the treatment being evaluated. We consider the problem of sample selection, i.e., whom to enroll in a randomized trial,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-26 Yuchen Hu , Henry Zhu , Emma Brunskill , Stefan Wager

A treatment regime is a rule that assigns a treatment to patients based on their covariate information. Recently, estimation of the optimal treatment regime that yields the greatest overall expected clinical outcome of interest has…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-07 Kevin Gunn , Wenbin Lu , Rui Song

When estimating treatment effects, the golden standard is to conduct a randomized experiment and then contrast outcomes associated with the treatment group and the control group. However, in many cases, randomized experiments are either…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-08 Kevin Han

In a randomized control trial, the precision of an average treatment effect estimator can be improved either by collecting data on additional individuals, or by collecting additional covariates that predict the outcome variable. We propose…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-27 Pedro Carneiro , Sokbae Lee , Daniel Wilhelm

The increasing prevalence of rich sources of data and the availability of electronic medical record databases and electronic registries opens tremendous opportunities for enhancing medical research. For example, controlled trials are…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-09-23 Liwen Ouyang , Daniel W. Apley , Sanjay Mehrotra

A fundamental principle of clinical medicine is that a treatment should only be administered to those patients who would benefit from it. Treatment strategies that assign treatment to patients as a function of their individual…

Applications · Statistics 2025-06-13 Nicholas Williams , Kara Rudolph , Iván Díaz

Clinical trials usually target average treatment effects, but treatment decisions are made for individuals. This tension motivates a common criticism of evidence-based medicine: a treatment that is beneficial on average may be inappropriate…

Applications · Statistics 2026-05-29 Zach Shahn , Mats Stensrud

Recent work has focused on nonparametric estimation of conditional treatment effects, but inference has remained relatively unexplored. We propose a class of nonparametric tests for both quantitative and qualitative treatment effect…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-07 Oliver Dukes , Mats J. Stensrud , Riccardo Brioschi , Aaron Hudson

In consequential domains, it is often impossible to compel individuals to take treatment, so that optimal policy rules are merely suggestions in the presence of human non-adherence to treatment recommendations. We study personalized…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-24 Angela Zhou

The aim of clinical effectiveness research using repositories of electronic health records is to identify what health interventions 'work best' in real-world settings. Since there are several reasons why the net benefit of intervention may…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-19 Jie Zhu , Blanca Gallego