Related papers: Tractable Inference for Complex Stochastic Process…

We consider data-driven reachability analysis of discrete-time stochastic dynamical systems using conformal inference. We assume that we are not provided with a symbolic representation of the stochastic system, but instead have access to a…

Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) are a powerful formalism for reasoning under uncertainty but bear some severe limitations: they require a large amount of information before any reasoning process can start, they have limited contradiction…

Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) provides a principled and generic framework to model real world sequential decision making processes but yet remains unsolved, especially for high dimensional continuous space and unknown…

An important mathematical tool in the analysis of dynamical systems is the approximation of the reach set, i.e., the set of states reachable after a given time from a given initial state. This set is difficult to compute for complex systems…

An increasing number of applications require real-time reasoning under uncertainty with streaming input. The temporal (dynamic) Bayes net formalism provides a powerful representational framework for such applications. However, existing…

Control of a dynamical system without the knowledge of dynamics is an important and challenging task. Modern machine learning approaches, such as deep neural networks (DNNs), allow for the estimation of a dynamics model from control inputs…

Belief tracking is a basic problem in planning with sensing. While the problem is intractable, it has been recently shown that for both deterministic and non-deterministic systems expressed in compact form, it can be done in time and space…

Bayesian inference for Markov processes has become increasingly relevant in recent years. Problems of this type often have intractable likelihoods and prior knowledge about model rate parameters is often poor. Markov Chain Monte Carlo…

Robust inference for stochastic dynamical systems is often hampered by sparse sampling and the absence of closed-form likelihoods. We introduce a Monte Carlo path-inference framework that leverages full-path statistics and bridge processes…

Deep belief networks (DBNs) are stochastic neural networks that can extract rich internal representations of the environment from the sensory data. DBNs had a catalytic effect in triggering the deep learning revolution, demonstrating for…

We study system design problems stated as parameterized stochastic programs with a chance-constraint set. We adopt a Bayesian approach that requires the computation of a posterior predictive integral which is usually intractable. In…

Bayesian Networks (BN) provide robust probabilistic methods of reasoning under uncertainty, but despite their formal grounds are strictly based on the notion of conditional dependence, not much attention has been paid so far to their use in…

Inferring models, predicting the future, and estimating the entropy rate of discrete-time, discrete-event processes is well-worn ground. However, a much broader class of discrete-event processes operates in continuous-time. Here, we provide…

The vast majority of the literature on learning dynamical systems or stochastic processes from time series has focused on stable or ergodic systems, for both Bayesian and frequentist inference procedures. However, most real-world systems…

Despite exceptional predictive performance of Deep sequence models (DSMs), the main concern of their deployment centers around the lack of uncertainty awareness. In contrast, probabilistic models quantify the uncertainty associated with…

Models defined by stochastic differential equations (SDEs) allow for the representation of random variability in dynamical systems. The relevance of this class of models is growing in many applied research areas and is already a standard…

Typically, real-world stochastic processes are not easy to analyze. In this work we study the representation of any stochastic process as a memoryless innovation process triggering a dynamic system. We show that such a representation is…

Bayesian inference methods are applied within a Bayesian hierarchical modelling framework to the problems of joint state and parameter estimation, and of state forecasting. We explore and demonstrate the ideas in the context of a simple…

Reliable predictive uncertainty estimation plays an important role in enabling the deployment of neural networks to safety-critical settings. A popular approach for estimating the predictive uncertainty of neural networks is to define a…

Employing model predictive control to systems with unbounded, stochastic disturbances poses the challenge of guaranteeing safety, i.e., repeated feasibility and stability of the closed-loop system. Especially, there are no strict repeated…