Related papers: Extendable MDL
While Jeffreys priors usually are well-defined for the parameters of mixtures of distributions, they are not available in closed form. Furthermore, they often are improper priors. Hence, they have never been used to draw inference on the…
While Jeffreys priors usually are well-defined for the parameters of mixtures of distributions, they are not available in closed form. Furthermore, they often are improper priors. Hence, they have never been used to draw inference on the…
To include parameter uncertainty into probabilistic climate forecasts one must first specify a prior. We advocate the use of objective priors, and, in particular, the Jeffreys' Prior. In previous work we have derived expressions for the…
Minimum Description Length (MDL) estimators, using two-part codes for universal coding, are analyzed. For general parametric families under certain regularity conditions, we introduce a two-part code whose regret is close to the minimax…
We derive the Jeffreys prior for the parameter of the Multivariate Ewens Distribution and study some of its properties. In particular, we show that this prior is proper and has no finite moments. We also investigate the impact of this…
Jeffrey's rule has been generalized by Wagner to the case in which new evidence bounds the possible revisions of a prior probability below by a Dempsterian lower probability. Classical probability kinematics arises within this…
In this paper we consider the use of variable length non prefix-free codes for coding constrained sequences of symbols. We suppose to have a Markov source where some state transitions are impossible, i.e. the stochastic matrix associated…
Objective probabilistic forecasts of future climate that include parameter uncertainty can be made by using the Bayesian prediction integral with the prior set to Jeffreys' Prior. The calculations involved in determining the prior can then…
This is an up-to-date introduction to and overview of the Minimum Description Length (MDL) Principle, a theory of inductive inference that can be applied to general problems in statistics, machine learning and pattern recognition. While MDL…
This paper proposes an alternative approach for constructing invariant Jeffreys prior distributions tailored for hierarchical or multilevel models. In particular, our proposal is based on a flexible decomposition of the Fisher information…
Learning the structure of Bayesian networks and causal relationships from observations is a common goal in several areas of science and technology. We show that the prequential minimum description length principle (MDL) can be used to…
Parametric complexity is a central concept in MDL model selection. In practice it often turns out to be infinite, even for quite simple models such as the Poisson and Geometric families. In such cases, MDL model selection as based on NML…
We analyze selected iterated conditionals in the framework of conditional random quantities. We point out that it is instructive to examine Lewis's triviality result, which shows the conditions a conditional must satisfy for its probability…
In this paper, we show a more concise and high level proof than the original one, derived by researcher Bart Jacobs, for the following theorem: in the context of Bayesian update rules for learning or updating internal states that produce…
Predictive constructions are a powerful way of characterizing the probability law of stochastic processes with certain forms of invariance, such as exchangeability or Markov exchangeability. When de Finetti-like representation theorems are…
We study online learning under logarithmic loss with regular parametric models. Hedayati and Bartlett (2012b) showed that a Bayesian prediction strategy with Jeffreys prior and sequential normalized maximum likelihood (SNML) coincide and…
A predictive distribution over a sequence of $N+1$ events is said to be "frequency mimicking" whenever the probability for the final event conditioned on the outcome of the first $N$ events equals the relative frequency of successes among…
The Generalized Pareto (GP) and Generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions play an important role in extreme value analyses, as models for threshold excesses and block maxima respectively. For each of these distributions we consider…
Penalization of the likelihood by Jeffreys' invariant prior, or by a positive power thereof, is shown to produce finite-valued maximum penalized likelihood estimates in a broad class of binomial generalized linear models. The class of…
We give a large sieve type inequality for functions supported on primes. As application we prove a conjecture by Elliott, and give bounds for short character sums over primes. The proves uses a combination of the large sieve and the Selberg…