Related papers: Modeling the Influence of Environment and Interven…
Public health decisions must be made about when and how to implement interventions to control an infectious disease epidemic. These decisions should be informed by data on the epidemic as well as current understanding about the transmission…
We improve a recent mathematical model for cholera by adding a time delay that represents the time between the instant at which an individual becomes infected and the instant at which he begins to have symptoms of cholera disease. We prove…
This study presents a seasonally forced cholera model that incorporates imperfect vaccination as a control strategy. The model captures the temporal dynamics of susceptible, vaccinated, infected, and recovered individuals, as well as the…
We propose a mathematical model for cholera with treatment through quarantine. The model is shown to be both epidemiologically and mathematically well posed. In particular, we prove that all solutions of the model are positive and bounded;…
This study estimates the overall effect of two influenza vaccination programs consecutively administered in a cluster-randomized trial in western Senegal over the course of two influenza seasons from 2009-2011. We apply cutting-edge…
An Ebola outbreak of unparalleled size is currently affecting several countries in West Africa, and international efforts to control the outbreak are underway. However, the efficacy of these interventions, and their likely impact on an…
As of October 12, 2018, 211 cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) were reported in North Kivu Province, Democratic Republic of Congo. Since the beginning of October the outbreak has largely shifted into regions in which active armed conflict…
A cholera transmission model incorporating water-borne and horizontal transmissions as well as infectivity of deceased individuals is formulated and studied. The model also describes an imperfect and waning vaccination. Global stability of…
We present a stochastic epidemic model to study the effect of various preventive measures, such as uniform reduction of contacts and transmission, vaccination, isolation, screening and contact tracing, on a disease outbreak in a…
COVID-19 has been prevalent worldwide for about 2 years now and has brought unprecedented challenges to our society. Before vaccines were available, the main disease intervention strategies were non-pharmaceutical. Starting December 2020,…
Despite seasonal cholera outbreaks in Bangladesh, little is known about the relationship between environmental conditions and cholera cases. We seek to develop a predictive model for cholera outbreaks in Bangladesh based on environmental…
Cholera, a severe gastrointestinal infection caused by the bacterium Vibrio cholerae, remains a major threat to public health with a yearly estimated global burden of 2.9 million cases. Although the majority of existing models for the…
During the COVID-19 pandemic, Aotearoa followed an elimination strategy followed by a mitigation strategy, which saw high success and kept health impact low. However, there were inequities in health outcomes, notably that M\=aori and…
Motivated by the increasing number of COVID-19 cases that have been observed in many countries after the vaccination and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, we propose a mathematical model on time-varying networks for the spread…
Throughout history, prevention and control of dengue transmission have challenged public health authorities worldwide. In the last decades, the interaction of multiple factors, such as environmental and climate variability, has influenced…
Despite extensive control efforts over the centuries, cholera remains a globally significant health issue. Seasonal emergence of cholera cases has been reported, particularly in the Bengal delta region, which is often synchronized with…
The rubeola virus, commonly known as measles, is one of the major causes of vaccine-preventable deaths among children worldwide. This is the case despite the fact that an effective vaccine is widely available. Even in developed countries…
We propose a forecasting method for predicting epidemiological health series on a two-week horizon at the regional and interregional resolution. The approach is based on model order reduction of parametric compartmental models, and is…
Even though laboratory and epidemiological studies have demonstrated the effects of ambient temperature on the transmission and survival of coronaviruses, not much has been done on the effects of weather on the spread of COVID-19. This…
Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models have been used for decades to understand epidemic outbreak dynamics. We develop an SIR model specifically designed to study the effects of population behavior with respect to health and…