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This paper deals with uncertainty quantification and out-of-distribution detection in deep learning using Bayesian and ensemble methods. It proposes a practical solution to the lack of prediction diversity observed recently for standard…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-03 Antoine de Mathelin , François Deheeger , Mathilde Mougeot , Nicolas Vayatis

Despite their success, kernel methods suffer from a massive computational cost in practice. In this paper, in lieu of commonly used kernel expansion with respect to $N$ inputs, we develop a novel optimal design maximizing the entropy among…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-12 Liang Ding , Rui Tuo , Shahin Shahrampour

We show that noise-induced oscillations in a gene circuit model display stochastic coherence, that is, a maximum in the regularity of the oscillations as a function of noise amplitude. The effect is manifest as a system-size effect in a…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2009-08-05 Robert C. Hilborn , Jessie D. Erwin

We describe a method to computationally estimate the probability density function of a univariate random variable by applying the maximum entropy principle with some local conditions given by Gaussian functions. The estimation errors and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-06-21 Mihail-Ioan Pop

RNA-Seq data characteristically exhibits large variances, which need to be appropriately accounted for in the model. We first explore the effects of this variability on the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the overdispersion parameter…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-12-03 Luis Leon-Novelo , Claudio Fuentes , Sarah Emerson

Microarray data are often used to determine which genes are differentially expressed between groups, for example, between treatment and control groups. There are methods of determining which genes have a high probability of differential…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2007-05-23 David R. Bickel

We study the distribution of maxima (Extreme Value Statistics) for sequences of observables computed along orbits generated by random transformations. The underlying, deterministic, dynamical system can be regular or chaotic. In the former…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-06-11 Davide Faranda , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Valerio Lucarini , Giorgio Turchetti , Sandro Vaienti

In this work, we introduce a new methodology for inferring the interaction structure of discrete valued time series which are Poisson distributed. While most related methods are premised on continuous state stochastic processes, in fact,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-12 Jeremie Fish , Jie Sun , Erik Bollt

A perturbation framework is developed to analyze metastable behavior in stochastic processes with random internal and external states. The process is assumed to be under weak noise conditions, and the case where the deterministic limit is…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2013-09-23 Jay Newby , Jon Chapman

We look at the distribution of the Bayesian evidence for mock realizations of supernova and baryon acoustic oscillation data. The ratios of Bayesian evidences of different models are often used to perform model selection. The significance…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2022-07-20 Ryan E. Keeley , Arman Shafieloo

The Poisson distribution is the probability distribution of the number of independent events in a given period of time. Although the Poisson distribution appears ubiquitously in various stochastic dynamics of gene expression, both as…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-10-02 Julian Lee

Many differentially private (DP) data release systems either output DP synthetic data and leave analysts to perform inference as usual, which can lead to severe miscalibration, or output a DP point estimate without a principled way to do…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Amir Asiaee , Samhita Pal

Extrinsic faulting has been discussed previously within the so called difference method and random walk calculation. In this contribution is revisited under the framework of computational mechanics, which allows to derive expressions for…

This paper presents a general and efficient framework for probabilistic inference and learning from arbitrary uncertain information. It exploits the calculation properties of finite mixture models, conjugate families and factorization. Both…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2011-05-19 M. C. Garrido , P. E. Lopez-de-Teruel , A. Ruiz

Gene expression is inherently noisy as many steps in the read-out of the genetic information are stochastic. To disentangle the effect of different sources of stochasticity in such systems, we consider various models that describe some…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2015-06-05 Rahul Marathe , David Gomez , Stefan Klumpp

During tissue development, patterns of gene expression determine the spatial arrangement of cell types. In many cases, gradients of secreted signaling molecules - morphogens - guide this process. The continuous positional information…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2017-02-08 Ruben Perez-Carrasco , Pilar Guerrero , James Briscoe , Karen Page

We consider an electron magnetically interacting with a spin-1/2 impurity, embedded in an external environment whose noisy term acts only on the impurity's spin, and we find expressions for the electron transmission and reflection…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2009-11-13 Alexandra M. Liguori , Giovanni Moras

Robust machine learning for regulatory genomics is studied under biologically and technically induced distribution shifts. Deep convolutional and attention based models achieve strong in distribution performance on DNA regulatory sequence…

Genomics · Quantitative Biology 2026-02-20 Yiyao Yang

We study several Fokker-Planck equations arising from a stochastic chemical kinetic system modeling a gene regulatory network in biology. The densities solving the Fokker-Planck equations describe the joint distribution of the messenger RNA…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-09-15 Pierre Degond , Maxime Herda , Sepideh Mirrahimi

Probabilistic sensitivity analysis identifies the influential uncertain input to guide decision-making. We propose a general sensitivity framework with respect to the input distribution parameters that unifies a wide range of sensitivity…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-10 Jiannan Yang