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When the sample path of a Hawkes process is observed discretely, such that only the total event counts in disjoint time intervals are known, the likelihood function becomes intractable. To overcome the challenge of likelihood-based…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-24 Jason J. Lambe , Feng Chen , Tom Stindl , Tsz-Kit Jeffrey Kwan

Single-molecule localization microscopy allows practitioners to locate and track labeled molecules in biological systems. When extracting diffusion coefficients from the resulting trajectories, it is common practice to perform a linear fit…

Biological Physics · Physics 2024-06-19 Jakob Tómas Bullerjahn , Gerhard Hummer

Diffusion models are state-of-the-art methods in generative modeling when samples from a target probability distribution are available, and can be efficiently sampled, using score matching to estimate score vectors guiding a Langevin…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-21 Omar Chehab , Anna Korba

For rare events described in terms of Markov processes, truly unbiased estimation of the rare event probability generally requires the avoidance of numerical approximations of the Markov process. Recent work in the exact and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-11-08 James Hodgson , Adam M. Johansen , Murray Pollock

We provide full theoretical guarantees for the convergence behaviour of diffusion-based generative models under the assumption of strongly log-concave data distributions while our approximating class of functions used for score estimation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Stefano Bruno , Ying Zhang , Dong-Young Lim , Ömer Deniz Akyildiz , Sotirios Sabanis

Langevin Dynamics is a Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) central to sampling and generative modeling and is implemented via time discretization. Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC), based on the Euler-Maruyama discretization, is the simplest…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-10 Saravanan Kandasamy , Dheeraj Nagaraj

Diffusion Morphs (DiM) are a recent state-of-the-art method for creating high quality face morphs; however, they require a high number of network function evaluations (NFE) to create the morphs. We propose a new DiM pipeline, Fast-DiM,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-07-02 Zander W. Blasingame , Chen Liu

We propose a new statistical observation scheme of diffusion processes named convolutional observation, where it is possible to deal with smoother observation than ordinary diffusion processes by considering convolution of diffusion…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-28 Shogo H Nakakita , Masayuki Uchida

We present a comprehensive theory of homogeneous volatility (and variance) estimators of arbitrary stochastic processes that fully exploit the OHLC (open, high, low, close) prices. For this, we develop the theory of most efficient…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2009-08-13 A. Saichev , D. Sornette , V. Filimonov

In this paper we introduce a novel particle filter scheme for a class of partially-observed multivariate diffusions. %continuous-time dynamic models where the %signal is given by a multivariate diffusion process. We consider a variety of…

Methodology · Statistics 2007-10-24 Paul Fearnhead , Omiros Papaspiliopoulos , Gareth Roberts

Active multi-target tracking requires a mobile robot to balance exploration for undetected targets with exploitation of uncertain tracked ones. Diffusion policies have emerged as a powerful approach for capturing diverse behavioral…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Haotian Xiang , Qin Lu , Yaakov Bar-Shalom

We consider a one-dimensional diffusion process $(X_t)$ which is observed at $n+1$ discrete times with regular sampling interval $\Delta$. Assuming that $(X_t)$ is strictly stationary, we propose nonparametric estimators of the drift and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Fabienne Comte , Valentine Genon-Catalot , Yves Rozenholc

The stochastic motions of a diffusing particle contain information concerning the particle's interactions with binding partners and with its local environment. However, accurate determination of the underlying diffusive properties, beyond…

Biological Physics · Physics 2016-12-21 Peter K. Koo , Simon G. J. Mochrie

Recent work in scalable approximate Gaussian process regression has discussed a bias-variance-computation trade-off when estimating the log marginal likelihood. We suggest a method that adaptively selects the amount of computation to use…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-21 David R. Burt , Artem Artemev , Mark van der Wilk

Diffusion processes are a class of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) providing a rich family of expressive models that arise naturally in dynamic modelling tasks. Probabilistic inference and learning under generative models with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-28 Prakhar Verma , Vincent Adam , Arno Solin

Suppose we have three independent copies of a regular diffusion on $[0,1]$ with absorbing boundaries. Of these diffusions, either at least two are absorbed at the upper boundary or at least two at the lower boundary. In this way, they…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-12-30 Saul Jacka , Jon Warren , Peter Windridge

In this paper, we address high-dimensional parametric estimation of the drift function in diffusion models, specifically focusing on a $d$-dimensional ergodic diffusion process observed at discrete time points. We consider both a general…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-09 Chiara Amorino , Francisco Pina , Mark Podolskij

We propose an approach to approximate the boundary crossing probabilities for general one-dimensional diffusion processes, and derive the convergence rate for this approximation scheme. There results are based on the explicit expression of…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-10-28 Jinghai Shao , Liqun Wang

Based on the theory of c\`adl\`ag rough paths, we develop a pathwise approach to analyze stability and approximation properties of portfolios along individual price trajectories generated by standard models of financial markets. As a…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-07-25 Andrew L. Allan , Anna P. Kwossek , Chong Liu , David J. Prömel

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is critical for ensuring the reliability of deep learning systems, particularly in safety-critical applications. Likelihood-based deep generative models have historically faced criticism for their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-11 Yifan Ding , Arturas Aleksandraus , Amirhossein Ahmadian , Jonas Unger , Fredrik Lindsten , Gabriel Eilertsen
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