Related papers: A Bayesian Non-Parametric Approach to Asymmetric D…
We study a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimation of the volatility function of a stochastic differential equation driven by a gamma process. The volatility function is modelled a priori as piecewise constant, and we specify a gamma…
We propose a Bayesian nonparametric model based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for the joint reconstruction and prediction of discrete time stochastic dynamical systems, based on $m$-multiple time-series data, perturbed by…
We present a method that models the evolution of an unbounded number of time series clusters by switching among an unknown number of regimes with linear dynamics. We develop a Bayesian non-parametric approach using a hierarchical Dirichlet…
Several academics have studied the ability of hybrid models mixing univariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models and neural networks to deliver better volatility predictions than purely econometric…
The main goal of this paper is an application of Bayesian model comparison, based on the posterior probabilities and posterior odds ratios, in testing the explanatory power of the set of competing GARCH (ang. Generalised Autoregressive…
This survey reviews the existing literature on the most relevant Bayesian inference methods for univariate and multivariate GARCH models. The advantages and drawbacks of each procedure are outlined as well as the advantages of the Bayesian…
We introduce a Bayesian approach to predictive density calibration and combination that accounts for parameter uncertainty and model set incompleteness through the use of random calibration functionals and random combination weights.…
This paper studies dynamic mean-variance (MV) asset allocation problems in general incomplete markets. Besides of the conventional MV objective on portfolio's terminal wealth, our framework can accommodate running MV objectives with general…
Bayesian nonparametric mixture models offer a rich framework for model based clustering. We consider the situation where the kernel of the mixture is available only up to an intractable normalizing constant. In this case, most of the…
The mean-variance portfolio model, based on the risk-return trade-off for optimal asset allocation, remains foundational in portfolio optimization. However, its reliance on restrictive assumptions about asset return distributions limits its…
Models for financial risk often assume that underlying asset returns are stationary. However, there is strong evidence that multivariate financial time series entail changes not only in their within-series dependence structure, but also in…
This article proposes a novel Bayesian multivariate quantile regression to forecast the tail behavior of energy commodities, where the homoskedasticity assumption is relaxed to allow for time-varying volatility. In particular, we exploit…
This paper focuses on a dynamic multi-asset mean-variance portfolio selection problem under model uncertainty. We develop a continuous time framework for taking into account ambiguity aversion about both expected return rates and…
The recently introduced class of simultaneous graphical dynamic linear models (SGDLMs) defines an ability to scale on-line Bayesian analysis and forecasting to higher-dimensional time series. This paper advances the methodology of SGDLMs,…
Bayesian non-parametric methods based on Dirichlet process mixtures have seen tremendous success in various domains and are appealing in being able to borrow information by clustering samples that share identical parameters. However, such…
Bayesian models based on Gaussian processes (GPs) offer a flexible framework to predict spatially distributed variables with uncertainty. But the use of nonstationary priors, often necessary for capturing complex spatial patterns, makes…
In this paper we use Gaussian Process (GP) regression to propose a novel approach for predicting volatility of financial returns by forecasting the envelopes of the time series. We provide a direct comparison of their performance to…
Volatility clustering is a common phenomenon in financial time series. Typically, linear models can be used to describe the temporal autocorrelation of the (logarithmic) variance of returns. Considering the difficulty in estimating this…
In extracting time series data from various sources, it is inevitable to compile variables measured at varying frequencies as this is often dependent on the source. Modeling from these data can be facilitated by aggregating high frequency…
In this work, we propose a model for estimating volatility from financial time series, extending the non-Gaussian family of space-state models with exact marginal likelihood proposed by Gamerman, Santos and Franco (2013). On the literature…