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The distribution of a time integral of geometric Brownian motion is not well understood. To price an Asian option and to obtain measures of its dependence on the parameters of time, strike price, and underlying market price, it is essential…
A nonlinear wave alternative for the standard Black-Scholes option-pricing model is presented. The adaptive-wave model, representing 'controlled Brownian behavior' of financial markets, is formally defined by adaptive nonlinear…
We provide series expansions for the tempered stable densities and for the price of European-style contracts in the exponential L\'evy model driven by the tempered stable process. These formulas recover several popular option pricing…
An American option grants the holder the right to select the time at which to exercise the option, so pricing an American option entails solving an optimal stopping problem. Difficulties in applying standard numerical methods to complex…
Predictions of short-term directional movement of the futures contract can be challenging as its pricing is often based on multiple complex dynamic conditions. This work presents a method for predicting the short-term directional movement…
Multivariate probability density functions of returns are constructed in order to model the empirical behavior of returns in a financial time series. They describe the well-established deviations from the Gaussian random walk, such as an…
The conditional density of Brownian motion is considered given the max, B(t|\max), as well as those with additional information: B(t|close, max), B(t|close, max, min) and B(t|max, min) where the close is the final value: B(t=1)=c and t in…
This paper explores stochastic modeling approaches to elucidate the intricate dynamics of stock prices and volatility in financial markets. Beginning with an overview of Brownian motion and its historical significance in finance, we delve…
Option pricing theory, such as the Black and Scholes (1973) model, provides an explicit solution to construct a strategy that perfectly hedges an option in a continuous-time setting. In practice, however, trading occurs in discrete time and…
We consider a pair $(X,Y)$ of stochastic processes satisfying the equation $dX=a(X)Y\,dB$ driven by a Brownian motion and study the monotonicity and continuity in $y$ of the value function $v(x,y)=\sup_{\tau}E_{x,y}[e^{-q\tau}g(X_{\tau})]$,…
We introduce a new online approach for constructing proposal distributions in particle filters using a forward scheme. Our method progressively incorporates future observations to refine proposals. This is in contrast to backward-scheme…
We use standard physics techniques to model trading and price formation in a market under the assumption that order arrival and cancellations are Poisson random processes. This model makes testable predictions for the most basic properties…
We consider the intensity-based approach for the modeling of default times of one or more companies. In this approach the default times are defined as the jump times of a Cox process, which is a Poisson process conditional on the…
In this paper we study the pricing of exchange options under a dynamic described by stochastic correlation with random jumps. In particular, we consider a Ornstein-Uhlenbeck covariance model with Levy Background Noise Process driven by…
Instantaneous volatility of logarithmic return in the lognormal fractional SABR model is driven by the exponentiation of a correlated fractional Brownian motion. Due to the mixed nature of driving Brownian and fractional Brownian motions,…
This paper gives an arbitrage-free prediction for future prices of an arbitrary co-terminal set of options with a given maturity, based on the observed time series of these option prices. The statistical analysis of such a multi-dimensional…
This paper presents a novel approach to predicting stock prices using technical analysis. By utilizing Ito's lemma and Euler-Maruyama methods, the researchers develop Heston and Geometric Brownian Motion models that take into account…
High frequency data in finance have led to a deeper understanding on probability distributions of market prices. Several facts seem to be well stablished by empirical evidence. Specifically, probability distributions have the following…
This paper presents an overview of information-based asset pricing. In this approach, an asset is defined by its cash-flow structure. The market is assumed to have access to "partial" information about future cash flows. Each cash flow is…
The article shows a bridge representation for the joint density of a system of stochastic processes consisting of a Brownian motion with drift coupled with a correlated fractional Brownian motion with drift. As a result, a small time…