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This paper introduces a simple efficient learning algorithms for general sequential decision making. The algorithm combines Optimism for exploration with Maximum Likelihood Estimation for model estimation, which is thus named OMLE. We prove…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-24 Qinghua Liu , Praneeth Netrapalli , Csaba Szepesvári , Chi Jin

We present a new approach to the problems of evaluating and learning personalized decision policies from observational data of past contexts, decisions, and outcomes. Only the outcome of the enacted decision is available and the historical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-04 Nathan Kallus

Likelihood-free inference involves inferring parameter values given observed data and a simulator model. The simulator is computer code which takes parameters, performs stochastic calculations, and outputs simulated data. In this work, we…

Computation · Statistics 2023-01-30 Dennis Prangle , Cecilia Viscardi

Autonomous systems are often required to operate in partially observable environments. They must reliably execute a specified objective even with incomplete information about the state of the environment. We propose a methodology to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-01-14 Maxime Bouton , Jana Tumova , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

We consider POMDPs in which the weight of the stage payoff depends on the past sequence of signals and actions occurring in the infinitely repeated problem. We prove that for all epsilon>0, there exists a strategy that is epsilon-optimal…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-04-21 Xavier Venel , Bruno Ziliotto

It is well known that for any finite state Markov decision process (MDP) there is a memoryless deterministic policy that maximizes the expected reward. For partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs), optimal memoryless policies…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-02-16 Guido Montufar , Keyan Ghazi-Zahedi , Nihat Ay

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) are a fundamental model for sequential decision-making under uncertainty. However, many verification and synthesis problems for POMDPs are undecidable or intractable. Most prominently,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-23 Nathanaël Fijalkow , Arka Ghosh , Roman Kniazev , Guillermo A. Pérez , Pierre Vandenhove

Monotonic policy improvement and off-policy learning are two main desirable properties for reinforcement learning algorithms. In this paper, by lower bounding the performance difference of two policies, we show that the monotonic policy…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-11-02 Ryo Iwaki , Minoru Asada

Importance sampling-based estimators for off-policy evaluation (OPE) are valued for their simplicity, unbiasedness, and reliance on relatively few assumptions. However, the variance of these estimators is often high, especially when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-15 Simon P. Shen , Yecheng Jason Ma , Omer Gottesman , Finale Doshi-Velez

Importance Sampling (IS) is a method for approximating expectations under a target distribution using independent samples from a proposal distribution and the associated importance weights. In many applications, the target distribution is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-14 Gabriel Cardoso , Sergey Samsonov , Achille Thin , Eric Moulines , Jimmy Olsson

The basic idea of importance sampling is to use independent samples from a proposal measure in order to approximate expectations with respect to a target measure. It is key to understand how many samples are required in order to guarantee…

Computation · Statistics 2017-01-17 S. Agapiou , O. Papaspiliopoulos , D. Sanz-Alonso , A. M. Stuart

In this work, we generalize the problem of learning through interaction in a POMDP by accounting for eventual additional information available at training time. First, we introduce the informed POMDP, a new learning paradigm offering a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-09 Gaspard Lambrechts , Adrien Bolland , Damien Ernst

Relational Markov Decision Processes are a useful abstraction for complex reinforcement learning problems and stochastic planning problems. Recent work developed representation schemes and algorithms for planning in such problems using the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-06-26 Chenggang Wang , Roni Khardon

A tenet of reinforcement learning is that the agent always observes rewards. However, this is not true in many realistic settings, e.g., a human observer may not always be available to provide rewards, sensors may be limited or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Alireza Kazemipour , Simone Parisi , Matthew E. Taylor , Michael Bowling

Importance sampling is a popular method for efficient computation of various properties of a distribution such as probabilities, expectations, quantiles etc. The output of an importance sampling algorithm can be represented as a weighted…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-18 Henrik Hult , Pierre Nyquist

Existing complexity bounds for point-based POMDP value iteration algorithms focus either on the curse of dimensionality or the curse of history. We derive a new bound that relies on both and uses the concept of discounted reachability; our…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-07-09 Trey Smith , Reid Simmons

Autonomous agents that operate in the real world must often deal with partial observability, which is commonly modeled as partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). However, traditional POMDP models rely on the assumption of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-08-03 Moran Barenboim , Idan Lev-Yehudi , Vadim Indelman

Predictive mean matching (PMM) is a popular imputation strategy that imputes missing values by borrowing observed values from other cases with similar expectations. We show that, unlike other imputation strategies, PMM is not guaranteed to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-01 Paul T. von Hippel

In many real-world reinforcement learning applications, access to the environment is limited to a fixed dataset, instead of direct (online) interaction with the environment. When using this data for either evaluation or training of a new…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-06 Ofir Nachum , Yinlam Chow , Bo Dai , Lihong Li

Modified policy iteration (MPI) is a dynamic programming (DP) algorithm that contains the two celebrated policy and value iteration methods. Despite its generality, MPI has not been thoroughly studied, especially its approximation form…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-05-21 Bruno Scherrer , Victor Gabillon , Mohammad Ghavamzadeh , Matthieu Geist
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