Related papers: Hypothesis Management in Situation-Specific Networ…
Recently, topic modeling has been widely used to discover the abstract topics in text corpora. Most of the existing topic models are based on the assumption of three-layer hierarchical Bayesian structure, i.e. each document is modeled as a…
The paper extends Bayesian networks (BNs) by a mechanism for dynamic changes to the probability distributions represented by BNs. One application scenario is the process of knowledge acquisition of an observer interacting with a system. In…
Multi-fidelity models are becoming more prevalent in engineering, particularly in aerospace, as they combine both the computational efficiency of low-fidelity models with the high accuracy of higher-fidelity simulations. Various…
Uncertainty of decisions in safety-critical engineering applications can be estimated on the basis of the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique of averaging over decision models. The use of decision tree (DT) models assists…
Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide a tool to estimate the uncertainty of a neural network by considering a distribution over weights and sampling different models for each input. In this paper, we propose a method for uncertainty…
Due to spatial dependence -- often characterized as complex and non-linear -- model misspecification is a prevalent and critical issue in spatial data analysis and prediction. As the data, and thus model performance, is heterogeneous,…
According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. In general risk is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its…
Instance embeddings are an efficient and versatile image representation that facilitates applications like recognition, verification, retrieval, and clustering. Many metric learning methods represent the input as a single point in the…
When agents devise plans for execution in the real world, they face two important forms of uncertainty: they can never have complete knowledge about the state of the world, and they do not have complete control, as the effects of their…
Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently gained popularity due to their ability to quantify model uncertainty. However, specifying a prior for BNNs that captures relevant domain knowledge is often extremely challenging. In this work,…
Motivation: Several different threads of research have been proposed for modeling and mining temporal data. On the one hand, approaches such as dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) provide a formal probabilistic basis to model relationships…
Representing entities and relations in an embedding space is a well-studied approach for machine learning on relational data. Existing approaches, however, primarily focus on simple link structure between a finite set of entities, ignoring…
Exponential random graph models (ERGMs) are a widely used framework for network data, enabling hypothesis testing on the structural mechanisms underlying observed networks. Bayesian ERGMs provide principled uncertainty quantification and…
Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and heuristic predictive estimation (HPE) are two widely used approaches in industrial uncertainty analysis. We review them from the point of view of decision theory, using Bayesian inference as a gold…
Ensemble learning is a technique where multiple component learners are combined through a protocol. We propose an Ensemble Neural Network (ENN) that uses the combined latent-feature space of multiple neural network classifiers to improve…
The continuous-time Bayesian networks (CTBNs) represent a class of stochastic processes, which can be used to model complex phenomena, for instance, they can describe interactions occurring in living processes, in social science models or…
Dependency networks (Heckerman et al., 2000) provide a flexible framework for modeling complex systems with many variables by combining independently learned local conditional distributions through pseudo-Gibbs sampling. Despite their…
In scientific domains -- from biology to the social sciences -- many questions boil down to \textit{What effect will we observe if we intervene on a particular variable?} If the causal relationships (e.g.~a causal graph) are known, it is…
Despite much research targeted at enabling conventional machine learning models to continually learn tasks and data distributions sequentially without forgetting the knowledge acquired, little effort has been devoted to account for more…
Continuous time Bayesian networks (CTBNs) describe structured stochastic processes with finitely many states that evolve over continuous time. A CTBN is a directed (possibly cyclic) dependency graph over a set of variables, each of which…