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In this paper, we aim to design and analyze distributed Bayesian estimation algorithms for sensor networks. The challenges we address are to (i) derive a distributed provably-correct algorithm in the functional space of probability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-25 Parth Paritosh , Nikolay Atanasov , Sonia Martinez

Approximate Bayesian inference on the basis of summary statistics is well-suited to complex problems for which the likelihood is either mathematically or computationally intractable. However the methods that use rejection suffer from the…

Computation · Statistics 2010-05-04 M. G. B. Blum , O. Francois

Motivated by inferring cellular signaling networks using noisy flow cytometry data, we develop procedures to draw inference for Bayesian networks based on error-prone data. Two methods for inferring causal relationships between nodes in a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-11 Xianzheng Huang , Hongmei Zhang

In Part I (arXiv:1911.00619) of this article, we proposed an importance sampling algorithm to compute rare-event probabilities in forward uncertainty quantification problems. The algorithm, which we termed the "Bayesian Inverse Monte Carlo…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-06 Siddhant Wahal , George Biros

In multimedia forensics, learning-based methods provide state-of-the-art performance in determining origin and authenticity of images and videos. However, most existing methods are challenged by out-of-distribution data, i.e., with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-29 Anatol Maier , Benedikt Lorch , Christian Riess

Bayesian methods have shown success in deep learning applications. For example, in predictive tasks, Bayesian neural networks leverage Bayesian reasoning of model uncertainty to improve the reliability and uncertainty awareness of deep…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Wenlong Chen , Bolian Li , Ruqi Zhang , Yingzhen Li

The increasing integration of intermittent renewable generation, especially at the distribution level,necessitates advanced planning and optimisation methodologies contingent on the knowledge of thegrid, specifically the admittance matrix…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-12-21 Jean-Sébastien Brouillon , Emanuele Fabbiani , Pulkit Nahata , Keith Moffat , Florian Dörfler , Giancarlo Ferrari-Trecate

Bayesian inference allows expressing the uncertainty of posterior belief under a probabilistic model given prior information and the likelihood of the evidence. Predominantly, the likelihood function is only implicitly established by a…

We formulate natural gradient variational inference (VI), expectation propagation (EP), and posterior linearisation (PL) as extensions of Newton's method for optimising the parameters of a Bayesian posterior distribution. This viewpoint…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-07 William J. Wilkinson , Simo Särkkä , Arno Solin

Accurate uncertainty estimates are important in sequential model-based decision-making tasks such as Bayesian optimization. However, these estimates can be imperfect if the data violates assumptions made by the model (e.g., Gaussianity).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-27 Shachi Deshpande , Charles Marx , Volodymyr Kuleshov

Compared to point estimates calculated by standard neural networks, Bayesian neural networks (BNN) provide probability distributions over the output predictions and model parameters, i.e., the weights. Training the weight distribution of a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-01 Philipp Wagner , Xinyang Wu , Marco F. Huber

In recent times, neural networks have become a powerful tool for the analysis of complex and abstract data models. However, their introduction intrinsically increases our uncertainty about which features of the analysis are model-related…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-09 Tom Charnock , Laurence Perreault-Levasseur , François Lanusse

In the following article we provide an exposition of exact computational methods to perform parameter inference from partially observed network models. In particular, we consider the duplication attachment (DA) model which has a likelihood…

Computation · Statistics 2013-06-20 Junshan Wang , Ajay Jasra , Maria De Iorio

We consider the problem of Bayesian regression with trustworthy uncertainty quantification. We define that the uncertainty quantification is trustworthy if the ground truth can be captured by intervals dependent on the predictive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-30 Zhenyuan Yuan , Thinh T. Doan

In recent years there has been a flurry of works on learning Bayesian networks from data. One of the hard problems in this area is how to effectively learn the structure of a belief network from incomplete data- that is, in the presence of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-02-01 Nir Friedman

Catastrophic forgetting has been the leading issue in the domain of lifelong learning in artificial systems. Current artificial systems are reasonably good at learning domains they have seen before; however, as soon as they encounter…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-02 Ram Zaveri

We investigate Bayesian predictive inference for finite population quantities when there are unequal probabilities of selection. Only limited information about the sample design is available; i.e., only the first-order selection…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-10 Junheng Ma , Joe Sedransk , Balgobin Nandram , Lu Chen

Combining Bayesian nonparametrics and a forward model selection strategy, we construct parsimonious Bayesian deep networks (PBDNs) that infer capacity-regularized network architectures from the data and require neither cross-validation nor…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-03 Mingyuan Zhou

To adopt neural networks in safety critical domains, knowing whether we can trust their predictions is crucial. Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) provide uncertainty estimates by averaging predictions with respect to the posterior weight…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-17 Jannik Schmitt , Stefan Roth

In this paper, we present a novel approach to accelerate the Bayesian inference process, focusing specifically on the nested sampling algorithms. Bayesian inference plays a crucial role in cosmological parameter estimation, providing a…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-10-17 Isidro Gómez-Vargas , J. Alberto Vázquez