Related papers: Markov Chain Monte Carlo using Tree-Based Priors o…

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods have become popular in statistics as versatile techniques to sample from complicated probability distributions. In this work, we propose a method to parameterize and train transition kernels of Markov chains…

Importance sampling (IS) is commonly used for cross validation (CV) in Bayesian models, because it only involves reweighting existing posterior draws without needing to re-estimate the model by re-running Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC).…

We present an adaptive method for the automatic scaling of Random-Walk Metropolis-Hastings algorithms, which quickly and robustly identifies the scaling factor that yields a specified overall sampler acceptance probability. Our method…

We present here a general framework and a specific algorithm for predicting the destination, route, or more generally a pattern, of an ongoing journey, building on the recent work of [Y. Lassoued, J. Monteil, Y. Gu, G. Russo, R. Shorten,…

Completely automatic and adaptive non-parametric inference is a pie in the sky. The frequentist approach, best exemplified by the kernel estimators, has excellent asymptotic characteristics but it is very sensitive to the choice of…

The main challenges that arise when adopting Gaussian Process priors in probabilistic modeling are how to carry out exact Bayesian inference and how to account for uncertainty on model parameters when making model-based predictions on…

We introduce a general framework that constructs estimators with reduced variance for random walk Metropolis and Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithms. The resulting estimators require negligible computational cost and are derived in a…

In Bayesian learning of Gaussian graphical model structure, it is common to restrict attention to certain classes of graphs and approximate the posterior distribution by repeatedly moving from one graph to another, using MCMC or methods…

This paper presents a new approach to automatically discovering accurate models of complex time series data. Working within a Bayesian nonparametric prior over a symbolic space of Gaussian process time series models, we present a novel…

This article presents MCTS-BN, an adaptation of the Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) algorithm for the structural learning of Bayesian Networks (BNs). Initially designed for game tree exploration, MCTS has been repurposed to address the…

Shielding studies in neutron transport, with Monte Carlo codes, yield challenging problems of small-probability estimation. The particularity of these studies is that the small probability to estimate is formulated in terms of the…

We analyse computational efficiency of Metropolis-Hastings algorithms with stochastic AR(1) process proposals. These proposals include, as a subclass, discretized Langevin diffusion (e.g. MALA) and discretized Hamiltonian dynamics (e.g.…

The Bayesian elastic net regression model is characterized by the regression coefficient prior distribution, the negative log density of which corresponds to the elastic net penalty function. While Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods…

Motivated by the physics of strings and branes, we develop a class of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms involving extended objects. Starting from a collection of parallel Metropolis-Hastings (MH) samplers, we place them on an…

Gaussian graphical models are useful tools for conditional independence structure inference of multivariate random variables. Unfortunately, Bayesian inference of latent graph structures is challenging due to exponential growth of…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, such as the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm, are widely used for Bayesian inference. One of the most important issues for any MCMC method is the convergence of the Markov chain, which depends…

Monte Carlo methods, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), remain the most regularly-used approach for implementing Bayesian inference. However, the computational cost of these approaches usually scales worse than linearly with the…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have revolutionised Bayesian data analysis over the years by making the direct computation of posterior probability densities feasible on modern workstations. However, the calculation of the prior…

Fitted probabilities from widely used Bayesian multinomial probit models can depend strongly on the choice of a base category, which is used to uniquely identify the parameters of the model. This paper proposes a novel identification…

This paper introduces a framework for speeding up Bayesian inference conducted in presence of large datasets. We design a Markov chain whose transition kernel uses an (unknown) fraction of (fixed size) of the available data that is randomly…