Related papers: Inference for population dynamics in the Neolithic…

We consider a wavefront model for the spread of Neolithic culture across Europe, and use Bayesian inference techniques to provide estimates for the parameters within this model, as constrained by radiocarbon data from Southern and Western…

We present a mathematical model, based on the compilation and statistical processing of radiocarbon dates, of the transition from the Mesolithic to the Neolithic, from about 7,000 to 4,000 BC in Europe. The arrival of the Neolithic is…

The causes and implications of the regional variations in the spread of the incipient agriculture in Europe remain poorly understood. We apply population dynamics models to study the dispersal of the Neolithic in Europe from a localized…

Was the spread of agropastoralism from the Fertile Crescent throughout Europe influenced by extreme climate events, or was it independent of climate? We here generate idealized climate events using palaeoclimate records. In a mathematical…

Farming and herding were introduced to Europe from the Near East and Anatolia; there are, however, considerable arguments about the mechanisms of this transition. Were it people who moved and outplaced the indigenous hunter- gatherer groups…

The most profound change in the relationship between humans and their environment was the introduction of agriculture and pastoralism. [....] For an understanding of the expansion process, it appears appropriate to apply a diffusive model.…

Paleoclimatology -- the study of past climate -- is relevant beyond climate science itself, such as in archaeology and anthropology for understanding past human dispersal. Information about the Earth's paleoclimate comes from simulations of…

Multivariate compositional count data arise in many applications including ecology, microbiology, genetics, and paleoclimate. A frequent question in the analysis of multivariate compositional count data is what values of a covariate(s) give…

This paper is concerned with a contemporary Bayesian approach to the effect of temperature on developmental rates. We develop statistical methods using recent computational tools to model four commonly used ecological non-linear…

We outline a model and algorithm to perform inference on the palaeoclimate and palaeoclimate volatility from pollen proxy data. We use a novel multivariate non-linear non-Gaussian state space model consisting of an observation equation…

Many records in environmental sciences exhibit asymmetric trajectories and there is a need for simple and tractable models which can reproduce such features. In this paper we explore an approach based on applying both a time change and a…

This paper focuses on drawing inference on the causal impact of an intervention at a specific time point, as manifested in an outcome variable over time. We operate on the interrupted time series framework and expand on approaches such as…

In population genetics, extant samples are usually used for inference of past population genetic forces. With the Kingman coalescent and the backward diffusion equation, inference of the marginal likelihood proceeds from an extant sample…

In this work we introduce a semi-parametric Bayesian change-point model, defining its time dynamic as a latent Markov process based on the Dirichlet process. We treat the number of change point as a random variable and we estimate it during…

A rapid decline in mortality and fertility has become major issues in many developed countries over the past few decades. A precise model for forecasting demographic movements is important for decision making in social welfare policies and…

Genetic data are often used to infer demographic history and changes or detect genes under selection. Inferential methods are commonly based on models making various strong assumptions: demography and population structures are supposed…

We consider the problem of fitting a parametric model to time-series data that are afflicted by correlated noise. The noise is represented by a sum of two stationary Gaussian processes: one that is uncorrelated in time, and another that has…

One of the last chapters in the long course of human evolution was the shift from hunting and gathering to the production of food or strategies of subsistence based on farming and the herding of animals. In Southwest Asia, the first steps…

Phase transitions during inflation can generate a stochastic gravitational-wave background that probes primordial physics. We study the detectability and parameter reconstruction of such a signal with a space-based gravitational-wave…

A commonly-used paradigm to estimate changes in the frequency of past events or the size of populations is to consider the occurrence rate of archaeological/environmental samples found at a site over time. The reliability of such a…