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We propose a flexible nonparametric Bayesian modelling framework for multivariate time series of count data based on tensor factorisations. Our models can be viewed as infinite state space Markov chains of known maximal order with…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-13 Zhongzhen Wang , Petros Dellaportas , Ioannis Kosmidis

Causal Bayesian networks are widely used tools for summarising the dependencies between variables and elucidating their putative causal relationships. By restricting the search to trees, for example, learning the optimum from data is…

Computation · Statistics 2025-03-10 Felix L. Rios , Giusi Moffa , Jack Kuipers

Model-based Bayesian reinforcement learning has generated significant interest in the AI community as it provides an elegant solution to the optimal exploration-exploitation tradeoff in classical reinforcement learning. Unfortunately, the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-06-18 Stephane Ross , Joelle Pineau

Variable Elimination is a fundamental algorithm for probabilistic inference over Bayesian networks. In this paper, we propose a novel materialization method for Variable Elimination, which can lead to significant efficiency gains when…

Databases · Computer Science 2021-01-29 Cigdem Aslay , Martino Ciaperoni , Aristides Gionis , Michael Mathioudakis

Probabilistic independence can dramatically simplify the task of eliciting, representing, and computing with probabilities in large domains. A key technique in achieving these benefits is the idea of graphical modeling. We survey existing…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-21 Fahiem Bacchus , Adam J. Grove

Models with intractable normalizing functions arise frequently in statistics. Common examples of such models include exponential random graph models for social networks and Markov point processes for ecology and disease modeling. Inference…

Computation · Statistics 2018-08-03 Jaewoo Park , Murali Haran

Bayesian networks are widely utilised in various fields, offering elegant representations of factorisations and causal relationships. We use surjective functions to reduce the dimensionality of the Bayesian networks by combining states and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-09 Linard Hoessly

Boolean matrix factorisation aims to decompose a binary data matrix into an approximate Boolean product of two low rank, binary matrices: one containing meaningful patterns, the other quantifying how the observations can be expressed as a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-02-28 Tammo Rukat , Chris C. Holmes , Michalis K. Titsias , Christopher Yau

The ability to represent complex high dimensional probability distributions in a compact form is one of the key insights in the field of graphical models. Factored representations are ubiquitous in machine learning and lead to major…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-06-23 Yexiang Xue , Stefano Ermon , Ronan Le Bras , Carla P. Gomes , Bart Selman

We develop the theory and practice of an approach to modelling and probabilistic inference in causal networks that is suitable when application-specific or analysis-specific constraints should inform such inference or when little or no data…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-05-16 Paul Beaumont , Michael Huth

We propose a Bayesian regression method that accounts for multi-way interactions of arbitrary orders among the predictor variables. Our model makes use of a factorization mechanism for representing the regression coefficients of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-09-28 Mikhail Yurochkin , XuanLong Nguyen , Nikolaos Vasiloglou

Variational inference provides approximations to the computationally intractable posterior distribution in Bayesian networks. A prominent medical application of noisy-or Bayesian network is to infer potential diseases given observed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-05-23 Yusheng Xie , Nan Du , Wei Fan , Jing Zhai , Weicheng Zhu

Amortized Bayesian inference trains neural networks to solve stochastic inference problems using model simulations, thereby making it possible to rapidly perform Bayesian inference for any newly observed data. However, current…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-16 Manuel Gloeckler , Michael Deistler , Christian Weilbach , Frank Wood , Jakob H. Macke

Neural network pruning is a highly effective technique aimed at reducing the computational and memory demands of large neural networks. In this research paper, we present a novel approach to pruning neural networks utilizing Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-08-07 Sunil Mathew , Daniel B. Rowe

A general Bayesian framework for model selection on random network models regarding their features is considered. The goal is to develop a principle Bayesian model selection approach to compare different fittable, not necessarily nested,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-30 Papamichalis Marios

Bayesian models of behavior have provided computational level explanations in a range of psychophysical tasks. One fundamental experimental paradigm is the production or reproduction task, in which subjects are instructed to generate an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-03 Nils Neupärtl , Constantin A. Rothkopf

Bayesian sparse factor models have proven useful for characterizing dependence in multivariate data, but scaling computation to large numbers of samples and dimensions is problematic. We propose expandable factor analysis for scalable…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-21 Sanvesh Srivastava , Barbara E. Engelhardt , David B. Dunson

Neural networks are popular state-of-the-art models for many different tasks.They are often trained via back-propagation to find a value of the weights that correctly predicts the observed data. Although back-propagation has shown good…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-29 Simón Rodríguez Santana , Daniel Hernández-Lobato

Bayesian inference is a powerful tool for parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification in dynamical systems. However, for nonlinear oscillator networks such as Kuramoto models, widely used to study synchronization phenomena in…

Applications · Statistics 2026-03-24 Emma Hannula , Jana de Wiljes , Matthew T. Moores , Heikki Haario , Lassi Roininen

Bayesian Networks (BN) provide robust probabilistic methods of reasoning under uncertainty, but despite their formal grounds are strictly based on the notion of conditional dependence, not much attention has been paid so far to their use in…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-30 Luigi Portinale , Andrea Bobbio