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Computing the stationary distributions of a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) involves solving a set of linear equations. In most cases of interest, the number of equations is infinite or too large, and the equations cannot be solved…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-08-25 Juan Kuntz , Philipp Thomas , Guy-Bart Stan , Mauricio Barahona

The use of heuristics to assess the convergence and compress the output of Markov chain Monte Carlo can be sub-optimal in terms of the empirical approximations that are produced. Typically a number of the initial states are attributed to…

Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are used to simulate from complex statistical distributions by way of a local exploration of these distributions. This local feature avoids heavy requests on understanding the nature of the target, but it…

Computation · Statistics 2018-04-12 Christian P. Robert , Victor Elvira , Nick Tawn , Changye Wu

In this paper we consider the parameter estimation problem associated to partially-observed time changed SDEs, with observations that are given at discrete times. In particular we consider both likelihood and Bayesian estimation. We develop…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-05-12 Ke Zhao , Ajay Jasra

Bayesian computation crucially relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. In the case of massive data sets, running the Metropolis-Hastings sampler to draw from the posterior distribution becomes prohibitive due to the large…

Computation · Statistics 2015-12-07 Roberto Casarin , Radu V. Craiu , Fabrizio Leisen

In dynamic Monte Carlo simulations, using for example the Metropolis dynamic, it is often required to simulate for long times and to simulate large systems. We present an overview of advanced algorithms to simulate for larger times and to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 M. A. Novotny , Alice K. Kolakowska , G. Korniss

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), or particle filtering, is widely used in nonlinear state-space systems, but its performance often suffers from poorly approximated proposal and state-transition distributions. This work introduces a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Wessel L. van Nierop , Nir Shlezinger , Ruud J. G. van Sloun

This paper deals with the optimal stopping problem under partial observation for piecewise-deterministic Markov processes. We first obtain a recursive formulation of the optimal filter process and derive the dynamic programming equation of…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-05-28 Adrien Brandejsky , Benoîte de Saporta , François Dufour

This paper introduces the {\it particle swarm filter} (not to be confused with particle swarm optimization): a recursive and embarrassingly parallel algorithm that targets an approximation to the sequence of posterior predictive…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-16 Taylor R. Brown

A novel class of non-reversible Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes relying on continuous-time piecewise-deterministic Markov Processes has recently emerged. In these algorithms, the state of the Markov process evolves according to a…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-16 Paul Vanetti , Alexandre Bouchard-Côté , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet

The Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is the dominant paradigm for posterior computation in Bayesian analysis. It is common to control computation time by making approximations to the Markov transition kernel. Comparatively little attention…

Computation · Statistics 2017-08-30 James E. Johndrow , Jonathan C. Mattingly , Sayan Mukherjee , David Dunson

Monte Carlo (MC) methods are widely used for Bayesian inference and optimization in statistics, signal processing and machine learning. A well-known class of MC methods are Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. In order to foster…

Computation · Statistics 2016-09-27 L. Martino , V. Elvira , D. Luengo , J. Corander , F. Louzada

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are employed to sample from a given distribution of interest, whenever either the distribution does not exist in closed form, or, if it does, no efficient method to simulate an independent sample from…

Computation · Statistics 2008-07-22 Ioana A. Cosma , Masoud Asgharian

We consider adaptive increasingly rare Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, which are adaptive MCMC methods, where the adaptation concerning the "past'' happens less and less frequently over time. Under a contraction assumption with…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-02-24 Julian Hofstadler , Krzysztof Latuszynski , Gareth O. Roberts , Daniel Rudolf

The goal of this paper is to analyze distributional Markov Decision Processes as a class of control problems in which the objective is to learn policies that steer the distribution of a cumulative reward toward a prescribed target law,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-09 Nicole Bäuerle , Athanasios Vasileiadis

We construct a new framework for accelerating Markov chain Monte Carlo in posterior sampling problems where standard methods are limited by the computational cost of the likelihood, or of numerical models embedded therein. Our approach…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-06 Patrick R. Conrad , Youssef M. Marzouk , Natesh S. Pillai , Aaron Smith

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are algorithms for sampling probability distributions, commonly applied to the Boltzmann distribution in physical and chemical models such as protein folding and the Ising model. These methods enable…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-12-04 Aingeru Ramos , Jose A. Pascual , Javier Navaridas , Ivan Coluzza

We present a general framework for accelerating a large class of widely used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. Our approach exploits fast, iterative approximations to the target density to speculatively evaluate many potential…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-03-31 Elaine Angelino , Eddie Kohler , Amos Waterland , Margo Seltzer , Ryan P. Adams

The parameters of a discrete stationary Markov model are transition probabilities between states. Traditionally, data consist in sequences of observed states for a given number of individuals over the whole observation period. In such a…

Computation · Statistics 2012-04-30 Alberto Pasanisi , Shuai Fu , Nicolas Bousquet

We provide performance guarantees for a variant of simulation-based policy iteration for controlling Markov decision processes that involves the use of stochastic approximation algorithms along with state-of-the-art techniques that are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-17 Anna Winnicki , R. Srikant
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