Related papers: Reduction of Maximum Entropy Models to Hidden Mark…

The analyticity of the entropy and relative entropy rates of continuous-state hidden Markov models is studied here. Using the analytic continuation principle and the stability properties of the optimal filter, the analyticity of these rates…

We study modifications of the Viterbi Training (VT) algorithm to estimate emission parameters in Hidden Markov Models (HMM) in general, and in mixure models in particular. Motivated by applications of VT to HMM that are used in speech…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are commonly used for disease progression modeling when the true patient health state is not fully known. Since HMMs typically have multiple local optima, incorporating additional patient covariates can improve…

Hidden Markov Processes (HMP) is one of the basic tools of the modern probabilistic modeling. The characterization of their entropy remains however an open problem. Here the entropy of HMP is calculated via the cycle expansion of the…

In a real life process evolving over time, the relationship between its relevant variables may change. Therefore, it is advantageous to have different inference models for each state of the process. Asymmetric hidden Markov models fulfil…

Expectation-Maximization (EM) is a prominent approach for parameter estimation of hidden (aka latent) variable models. Given the full batch of data, EM forms an upper-bound of the negative log-likelihood of the model at each iteration and…

Large Language Models (LLMs) are known to hallucinate, whereby they generate plausible but inaccurate text. This phenomenon poses significant risks in critical applications, such as medicine or law, necessitating robust hallucination…

The formalism of state estimation and hidden Markov models (HMMs) can simplify and clarify the discussion of stochastic thermodynamics in the presence of feedback and measurement errors. After reviewing the basic formalism, we use it to…

The detection of change-points in heterogeneous sequences is a statistical challenge with many applications in fields such as finance, signal analysis and biology. A wide variety of literature exists for finding an ideal set of…

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) comprise a powerful generative approach for modeling sequential data and time-series in general. However, the commonly employed assumption of the dependence of the current time frame to a single or multiple…

This paper introduces a new parsimonious structure for mixture of autoregressive models. the weighting coefficients are determined through latent random variables, following a hidden Markov model. We propose a dynamic programming algorithm…

Consider the problem of predicting the next symbol given a sample path of length n, whose joint distribution belongs to a distribution class that may have long-term memory. The goal is to compete with the conditional predictor that knows…

In this paper, we explore the class of the Hidden Semi-Markov Model (HSMM), a flexible extension of the popular Hidden Markov Model (HMM) that allows the underlying stochastic process to be a semi-Markov chain. HSMMs are typically used less…

We consider the smoothing probabilities of hidden Markov model (HMM). We show that under fairly general conditions for HMM, the exponential forgetting still holds, and the smoothing probabilities can be well approximated with the ones of…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are probabilistic functions of finite Markov chains, or, put in other words, state space models with finite state space. In this paper, we examine subspace estimation methods for HMMs whose output lies a finite…

The impact of randomness on model training is poorly understood. How do differences in data order and initialization actually manifest in the model, such that some training runs outperform others or converge faster? Furthermore, how can we…

Non-homogeneous hidden Markov models (NHHMM) are a subclass of dependent mixture models used for semi-supervised learning, where both transition probabilities between the latent states and mean parameter of the probability distribution of…

Markov state models (MSMs) have been successful in computing metastable states, slow relaxation timescales and associated structural changes, and stationary or kinetic experimental observables of complex molecules from large amounts of…

The connection between the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) formalism and Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs) is natural, as both give rise to a Boltzmann-like distribution with constraints enforced by Lagrange multipliers, which corresponds to…

Mixture models are an expressive hypothesis class that can approximate a rich set of policies. However, using mixture policies in the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) framework is not straightforward. The entropy of a mixture model is not equal to…