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The extreme-mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs) of stellar-mass compact objects into massive black holes are an important class of source for the future space-based gravitational-wave detector LISA. Detecting signals from EMRIs will require…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2017-08-11 Alvin J. K. Chua , Christopher J. Moore , Jonathan R. Gair

This paper presents a new Bayesian model and algorithm used for depth and intensity profiling using full waveforms from the time-correlated single photon counting (TCSPC) measurement in the limit of very low photon counts. The model…

Applications · Statistics 2016-04-20 Yoann Altmann , Ximing Ren , Aongus McCarthy , Gerald S. Buller , Steve McLaughlin

We propose a multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for the Bayesian inference of random field parameters in PDEs using high-resolution data. Compared to existing multilevel MCMC methods, we additionally consider level-dependent…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-08-19 Pieter Vanmechelen , Geert Lombaert , Giovanni Samaey

Extreme mass ratio in-spirals (EMRIs) are candidate events for gravitational wave detection in the millihertz range (by detectors like LISA and eLISA). These events involve a stellar-mass black hole, or a similar compact object, descending…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2021-04-19 Deyan P. Mihaylov , Jonathan Gair

The present operation of the ground-based network of gravitational-wave laser interferometers in "enhanced" configuration brings the search for gravitational waves into a regime where detection is highly plausible. The development of…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2015-03-13 John Veitch , Alberto Vecchio

Bayesian methods have been very successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-02-06 Dave Higdon , Jordan D. McDonnell , Nicolas Schunck , Jason Sarich , Stefan M. Wild

The exploration of dark sector interactions via gravitational waves (GWs) from binary inspirals has been a subject of recent interest. We study dark forces using extreme mass ratio inspirals (EMRIs), pointing out two issues of interest.…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2024-09-13 Badal Bhalla , Kuver Sinha , Tao Xu

During the fifth science run of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO), signals modelling the gravitational waves emitted by coalescing non-spinning compact-object binaries were injected into the LIGO data stream. We…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2009-11-05 Marc van der Sluys , Ilya Mandel , Vivien Raymond , Vicky Kalogera , Christian Roever , Nelson Christensen

High-dimensional Bayesian variable selection problems are often solved using computationally expensive Markov Chain Montle Carlo (MCMC) techniques. Recently, a Bayesian variable selection technique was developed for continuous data using…

Computation · Statistics 2016-05-19 Patrick McDermott , John Snyder , Rebecca Willison

Factors models are routinely used to analyze high-dimensional data in both single-study and multi-study settings. Bayesian inference for such models relies on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods which scale poorly as the number of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-29 Blake Hansen , Alejandra Avalos-Pacheco , Massimiliano Russo , Roberta De Vito

Bayesian inference for Markov processes has become increasingly relevant in recent years. Problems of this type often have intractable likelihoods and prior knowledge about model rate parameters is often poor. Markov Chain Monte Carlo…

Computation · Statistics 2014-10-23 Jamie Owen , Darren J. Wilkinson , Colin S. Gillespie

We present mathematical and conceptual foundations for the task of robust amplitude estimation using engineered likelihood functions (ELFs), a framework introduced in Wang et al. [PRX Quantum 2, 010346 (2021)] that uses Bayesian inference…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-05-24 Dax Enshan Koh , Guoming Wang , Peter D. Johnson , Yudong Cao

Exponential random graph models (ERGMs) are a widely used framework for network data, enabling hypothesis testing on the structural mechanisms underlying observed networks. Bayesian ERGMs provide principled uncertainty quantification and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Alberto Caimo , Isabella Gollini

Mixtures-of-Experts models and their maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) via the EM algorithm have been thoroughly studied in the statistics and machine learning literature. They are subject of a growing investigation in the context of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-13 Faïcel Chamroukhi , Florian Lecocq , Hien D. Nguyen

Massive black hole binaries are the primary source of gravitational waves (GW) for the future eLISA observatory. The detection and parameter estimation of these sources to high redshift would provide invaluable information on the formation…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2015-05-27 Edward K. Porter , Neil J. Cornish

The analysis of data from gravitational wave detectors can be divided into three phases: search, characterization, and evaluation. The evaluation of the detection - determining whether a candidate event is astrophysical in origin or some…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2009-11-06 Tyson B. Littenberg , Neil J. Cornish

We consider the Bayesian detection statistic for a targeted search for continuous gravitational waves, known as the $\mathcal{B}$-statistic. This is a Bayes factor between signal and noise hypotheses, produced by marginalizing over the four…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2018-12-19 John J. Bero , John T. Whelan

Estimation of spatially-varying parameters for computationally expensive forward models governed by partial differential equations is addressed. A novel multiscale Bayesian inference approach is introduced based on deep probabilistic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-02 Yingzhi Xia , Nicholas Zabaras

Estimating model parameters of a general family of cure models is always a challenging task mainly due to flatness and multimodality of the likelihood function. In this work, we propose a fully Bayesian approach in order to overcome these…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-20 Panagiotis Papastamoulis , Fotios Milienos

Bayesian model selection provides a powerful and mathematically transparent framework to tackle hypothesis testing, such as detection tests of gravitational waves emitted during the coalescence of binary systems using ground-based laser…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2009-11-13 John Veitch , Alberto Vecchio