Related papers: Predictability and suppression of extreme events i…
The occurrence of extreme events like heavy precipitation or storms at a certain location often shows a clustering behaviour and is thus not described well by a Poisson process. We construct a general model for the inter-exceedance times in…
Verifying probabilistic forecasts for extreme events is a highly active research area because popular media and public opinions are naturally focused on extreme events, and biased conclusions are readily made. In this context, classical…
Forecasting extreme precipitation is essential yet challenging due to its rarity and complexity. We develop a large deviation framework to estimate the return times of extreme precipitation events. We first find that the Landau…
Complex social systems are composed of interconnected individuals whose interactions result in group behaviors. Optimal control of a real-world complex system has many applications, including road traffic management, epidemic prevention,…
Extreme value statistics provides accurate estimates for the small occurrence probabilities of rare events. While theory and statistical tools for univariate extremes are well-developed, methods for high-dimensional and complex data sets…
Rare events are processes that occur upon the emergence of unlikely fluctuations. Unlike what their name suggests, rare events are fairly ubiquitous in nature, as the occurrence of many structural transformations in biology and material…
We propose currently feasible experiments using small, isolated systems of ultracold atoms to investigate the effects of dynamical chaos in the microscopic onset of irreversibility. A control parameter is tuned past a critical value, then…
A strong analogy is found between the evolution of localized disturbances in extended chaotic systems and the propagation of fronts separating different phases. A condition for the evolution to be controlled by nonlinear mechanisms is…
In this paper we obtain some possibilistic variants of the probabilistic laws of large numbers, different from those obtained by other authors, but very natural extensions of the corresponding ones in probability theory. Our results are…
The probability of rare and extreme events is an important quantity for design purposes. However, computing the probability of rare events can be expensive because only a few events, if any, can be observed. To this end, it is necessary to…
In this paper we address the use of rare event computation techniques to estimate small over-threshold probabilities of observables in determin-istic dynamical systems. We demonstrate that the genealogical particle analysis algorithms can…
Complex systems universally exhibit emergence, where macroscopic dynamics arise from local interactions, but a predictive law governing this process has been absent. We establish and verify such a law. We define a system's causal power at a…
Spontaneous self-organization is ubiquitous in systems far from thermodynamic equilibrium. While organized structures that emerge dominate transport properties, universal representations that identify and describe these key objects remain…
Large language model-powered multi-agent systems have emerged as powerful tools for simulating complex human-like systems. The interactions within these systems often lead to extreme events whose origins remain obscured by the black box of…
In this manuscript we continue the thread of [M. Chertkov, F. Pan, M. Stepanov, Predicting Failures in Power Grids: The Case of Static Overloads, IEEE Smart Grid 2011] and suggest a new algorithm discovering most probable extreme stochastic…
Dynamical systems can be prone to severe fluctuations due to the presence of chaotic dynamics. This paper explains for a toy chaotic economic model how such a system can be regulated by the application of relatively weak control to keep the…
Interacting particle systems with many degrees of freedom may undergo phase transitions to sustain atypical fluctuations of dynamical observables such as the current or the activity. This leads in some cases to symmetry-broken space-time…
Extreme events are often multivariate in nature. A compound extreme occurs when a combination of variables jointly produces a significant impact, even if individual components are not necessarily marginally extreme. Compound extremes have…
A theory of exceptional extreme events, characterized by their abnormal sizes compared with the rest of the distribution, is presented. Such outliers, called "dragon-kings", have been reported in the distribution of financial drawdowns,…
Extreme environmental events such as severe storms, drought, heat waves, flash floods, and abrupt species collapse have become more prevalent in the earth-atmosphere dynamic system in recent years. In order to fully understand the…