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In this paper, we analyze the finite sample complexity of stochastic system identification using modern tools from machine learning and statistics. An unknown discrete-time linear system evolves over time under Gaussian noise without…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-22 Anastasios Tsiamis , George J. Pappas

The subspace identification method (SIM) has become a widely adopted approach for the identification of discrete-time linear time-invariant (LTI) systems. In this paper, we derive finite sample high-probability error bounds for the system…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-07-03 Shuai Sun , Weikang Hu , Xu Wang

The paper suggests a generalization of the Sign-Perturbed Sums (SPS) finite sample system identification method for the identification of closed-loop observable stochastic linear systems in state-space form. The solution builds on the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-06-11 Szabolcs Szentpéteri , Balázs Csanád Csáji

Reliable forward uncertainty quantification in engineering requires methods that account for aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. In many applications, epistemic effects arising from uncertain parameters and model form dominate prediction…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-12-18 Akash Yadav , Ruda Zhang

The subspace identification method (SIM) has been extensively employed in the identification of discrete-time multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) linear time-invariant (LTI) systems. This paper focuses on the analysis of perturbation…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-08-25 Shuai Sun

The kernel-based method has been successfully applied in linear system identification using stable kernel designs. From a Gaussian process perspective, it automatically provides probabilistic error bounds for the identified models from the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-03-20 Mingzhou Yin , Roy S. Smith

We consider the problem of least squares parameter estimation from single-trajectory data for discrete-time, unstable, closed-loop nonlinear stochastic systems, with linearly parameterised uncertainty. Assuming a region of the state space…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-12-06 Seth Siriya , Jingge Zhu , Dragan Nešić , Ye Pu

One of the primary challenges of system identification is determining how much data is necessary to adequately fit a model. Non-asymptotic characterizations of the performance of system identification methods provide this knowledge. Such…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-09-06 Bruce Lee , Andrew Lamperski

We consider the problem of subspace estimation in situations where the number of available snapshots and the observation dimension are comparable in magnitude. In this context, traditional subspace methods tend to fail because the…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2016-11-15 Pascal Vallet , Philippe Loubaton , Xavier Mestre

The subspace method is one of the mainstream system identification method of linear systems, and its basic idea is to estimate the system parameter matrices by projecting them into a subspace related to input and output. However, most of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-02-03 Xiangyu Mao , Jianping He , Chengcheng Zhao

We consider the problem of designing control laws for stochastic jump linear systems where the disturbances are drawn randomly from a finite sample space according to an unknown distribution, which is estimated from a finite sample of…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2019-10-31 Mathijs Schuurmans , Pantelis Sopasakis , Panagiotis Patrinos

Probabilistic and set-based methods are two approaches for model invalidation, parameter and state estimation. Both classes of methods use different types of data, i.e. deterministic or probabilistic data, which allow different statements…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2013-11-28 Stefan Streif , Didier Henrion , Rolf Findeisen

Available methods for identification of stochastic dynamical systems from input-output data generally impose restricting structural assumptions on either the noise structure in the data-generating system or the possible state probability…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-05-02 Gerben I. Beintema , Maarten Schoukens , Roland Tóth

Data-driven methods for modeling dynamic systems have received considerable attention as they provide a mechanism for control synthesis directly from the observed time-series data. In the absence of prior assumptions on how the time-series…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-09-24 Atiye Alaeddini , Siavash Alemzadeh , Afshin Mesbahi , Mehran Mesbahi

In this paper, we establish a unified framework for subspace identification (SID) of linear parameter-varying (LPV) systems to estimate LPV state-space (SS) models in innovation form. This framework enables us to derive novel LPV SID…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-08-11 P. B. Cox , R. Tóth

Subspace identification methods (SIMs) are known for their simple parameterization for MIMO systems and robust numerical properties. However, a comprehensive statistical analysis of SIMs remains an open problem. Following a three-step…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-09-18 Jiabao He , Ingvar Ziemann , Cristian R. Rojas , S. Joe Qin , Håkan Hjalmarsson

In this paper, we compute finite sample bounds for data-driven approximations of the solution to stochastic reachability problems. Our approach uses a nonparametric technique known as kernel distribution embeddings, and provides…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-12-09 Adam J. Thorpe , Kendric R. Ortiz , Meeko M. K. Oishi

This paper proposes a probabilistic Bayesian formulation for system identification (ID) and estimation of nonseparable Hamiltonian systems using stochastic dynamic models. Nonseparable Hamiltonian systems arise in models from diverse…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-09-19 Harsh Sharma , Nicholas Galioto , Alex A. Gorodetsky , Boris Kramer

Modal parameter estimation of operational structures is often a challenging task when confronted with unwanted distortions (outliers) in field measurements. Atypical observations present a problem to operational modal analysis (OMA)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-25 Brandon J. O'Connell , Timothy J. Rogers

There has been remarkable progress over the past decade in establishing finite-sample, non-asymptotic bounds on recovering unknown system parameters from observed system behavior. Surprisingly, however, we show that the current…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-24 Yichen Zhou , Stephen Tu
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