Related papers: Noise-induced Regime Shifts: A Quantitative Charac…

There is growing interest in anticipating critical transitions in natural systems, often pursued through statistical detection of early warning signals associated with dynamical bifurcations. In stochastic dynamical systems, such signals…

We consider a stochastic perturbation of the classical Lorenz system in the range of parameters for which the origin is the global attractor. We show that adding noise in the last component causes a transition from a unique to exactly two…

Changes in the parameters of dynamical systems can cause the state of the system to shift between different qualitative regimes. These shifts, known as bifurcations, are critical to study as they can indicate when the system is about to…

We explore a stochastic model that enables capturing external influences in two specific ways. The model allows for the expression of uncertainty in the parametrisation of the stochastic dynamics and incorporates patterns to account for…

We investigate the effect of noise strength on the macroscopic ordering dynamics of systems with symmetric absorbing states. Using an explicit stochastic microscopic model, we present evidence for a phase transition in the coarsening…

We study barrier crossing in a two-state system, namely the kinetic Ising model, in the presence of a weak bias field and spatially homogeneous, but time-dependent, Gaussian random fields. We find that the bias field determines the location…

The dynamic phase transition has been studied in the two dimensional kinetic Ising model in presence of a time varying (sinusoidal) magnetic field by Monte Carlo simulation. The nature (continuous or discontinuous) of the transition is…

We study the stationary states of variants of the noisy voter model, subject to fluctuating parameters or external environments. Specifically, we consider scenarios in which the herding-to-noise ratio switches randomly and on different time…

The paper algorithmizes the problem of regime change point identification for data measured in a system exhibiting impulsive behaviors. This is a fundamental challenge for annotation of measurement data relevant, e.g., for designing…

Varying one of the governing parameters of a dynamical system may lead to a critical transition, where the new stable state is undesirable. In some cases, there is only a limited range of the bifurcation parameter that corresponds to that…

We employ a typical genetic circuit model to explore how noise can influence the dynamic structure. With the increase of a key interactive parameter, the model will deterministically go through two bifurcations and three dynamic structure…

A single-column model is used to investigate regime transitions within the stable atmospheric boundary layer, focusing on the role of small-scale fluctuations in wind and temperature dynamics and of turbulence intermittency as triggers for…

In a standard bifurcation of a dynamical system, the stationary points (or more generally attractors) change qualitatively when varying a control parameter. Here we describe a novel unusual effect, when the change of a parameter, e.g. a…

Many real world systems are at risk of undergoing critical transitions, leading to sudden qualitative and sometimes irreversible regime shifts. The development of early warning signals is recognized as a major challenge. Recent progress…

Catastrophic transitions, where a system shifts abruptly between alternate steady states, are a generic feature of many nonlinear systems. Recently these regime shift were suggested as the mechanism underlies many ecological catastrophes,…

We demonstrate that the counting statistics of currents in periodically driven ergodic stochastic systems can show sharp changes of some of its properties in response to continuous changes of the driving protocol. To describe this effect,…

During tissue development, patterns of gene expression determine the spatial arrangement of cell types. In many cases, gradients of secreted signaling molecules - morphogens - guide this process. The continuous positional information…

A central challenge in physics is to describe non-equilibrium systems driven by randomness, such as a randomly growing interface, or fluids subject to random fluctuations that account e.g. for local stresses and heat fluxes not related to…

We present recent results on noise-induced transitions in a nonlinear oscillator with randomly modulated frequency. The presence of stochastic perturbations drastically alters the dynamical behaviour of the oscillator: noise can wash out a…

Studies conducted by the UK Met Office reported significant skill at predicting the winter NAO index with their seasonal prediction system. At the same time, a very low signal-to-noise ratio was observed, as measured using the `ratio of…