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Adaptive Monte Carlo methods are very efficient techniques designed to tune simulation estimators on-line. In this work, we present an alternative to stochastic approximation to tune the optimal change of measure in the context of…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-10-23 Benjamin Jourdain , Jérôme Lelong

We describe an adaptive importance sampling algorithm for rare events that is based on a dual stochastic control formulation of a path sampling problem. Specifically, we focus on path functionals that have the form of cumulate generating…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-01-30 Omar Kebiri , Lara Neureither , Carsten Hartmann

Testing the independence between random vectors is a fundamental problem in statistics. Distance correlation, a recently popular dependence measure, is universally consistent for testing independence against all distributions with finite…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-22 Yuwei Ke , Hok Kan Ling , Yanglei Song

Gaussian time-series models are often specified through their spectral density. Such models present several computational challenges, in particular because of the non-sparse nature of the covariance matrix. We derive a fast approximation of…

Computation · Statistics 2012-11-20 Nicolas Chopin , Judith Rousseau , Brunero Liseo

Efficient sampling of many-dimensional and multimodal density functions is a task of great interest in many research fields. We describe an algorithm that allows parallelizing inherently serial Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling by…

Computation · Statistics 2020-08-10 Vasyl Hafych , Philipp Eller , Oliver Schulz , Allen Caldwell

The aim of this paper is to introduce a new Monte Carlo method based on importance sampling techniques for the simulation of stochastic differential equations. The main idea is to combine random walk on squares or rectangles methods with…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-10-22 Madalina Deaconu , Antoine Lejay

We characterize the sample size required for accurate graphical model selection from non-stationary samples. The observed data is modeled as a vector-valued zero-mean Gaussian random process whose samples are uncorrelated but have different…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-28 Nguyen Q. Tran , Oleksii Abramenko , Alexander Jung

We have investigated decorrelation of samples in Quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) ground-state energy calculations for large Li and H$_{2}$O nanoclusters. Binning data as a way of eliminating statistical correlations, as is the common practice, is…

Materials Science · Physics 2007-10-11 D. Nissenbaum , B. Barbiellini , A. Bansil

When performing a Monte Carlo calculation, the running time should in principle be much longer than the autocorrelation time in order to get reliable results. Among different lattice fermion models, the Holstein model is notorious for its…

Strongly Correlated Electrons · Physics 2021-08-18 Meng Yao , Da Wang , Qiang-Hua Wang

We present a generic path-dependent importance sampling algorithm where the Girsanov induced change of probability on the path space is represented by a sequence of neural networks taking the past of the trajectory as an input. At each…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-07-08 Benjamin Virrion

Adaptive importance sampling is a class of techniques for finding good proposal distributions for importance sampling. Often the proposal distributions are standard probability distributions whose parameters are adapted based on the…

Computation · Statistics 2021-03-10 Topi Paananen , Juho Piironen , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Aki Vehtari

Monte Carlo methods, Variational Inference, and their combinations play a pivotal role in sampling from intractable probability distributions. However, current studies lack a unified evaluation framework, relying on disparate performance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-12 Denis Blessing , Xiaogang Jia , Johannes Esslinger , Francisco Vargas , Gerhard Neumann

The interactions between the components of complex networks are often directed. Proper modeling of such systems frequently requires the construction of ensembles of digraphs with a given sequence of in- and out-degrees. As the number of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-05-30 H. Kim , C. I. Del Genio , K. E. Bassler , Z. Toroczkai

Estimating the unknown density from which a given independent sample originates is more difficult than estimating the mean, in the sense that for the best popular non-parametric density estimators, the mean integrated square error converges…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-09-08 Pierre L'Ecuyer , Florian Puchhammer , Amal Ben Abdellah

We explore the possibilities of importance sampling in the Monte Carlo pricing of a structured credit derivative referred to as Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO). Modeling a CDO contract is challenging, since it depends on a pool of…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-12-09 Marcell Stippinger , Bálint Vető , Éva Rácz , Zsolt Bihary

Recently, global pulsar timing arrays have released results from searching for a nano-Hertz gravitational wave background signal. Although there has not been any definite evidence of the presence of such a signal in residuals of pulsar…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2022-10-12 A. Samajdar , G. Shaifullah , A. Sesana , J. Antoniadis , M. Burgay , D. J. Champion , S. Chen , M. Kramer , J. W. McKee , M. B. Mickaliger , E. Van der Wateren

Large deviation functions contain information on the stability and response of systems driven into nonequilibrium steady states, and in such a way are similar to free energies for systems at equilibrium. As with equilibrium free energies,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-04-25 Ushnish Ray , Garnet Kin-Lic Chan , David T. Limmer

As the vocabulary size of modern word-based language models becomes ever larger, many sampling-based training criteria are proposed and investigated. The essence of these sampling methods is that the softmax-related traversal over the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-06-18 Yingbo Gao , David Thulke , Alexander Gerstenberger , Khoa Viet Tran , Ralf Schlüter , Hermann Ney

The performance of the Monte Carlo sampling methods relies on the crucial choice of a proposal density. The notion of optimality is fundamental to design suitable adaptive procedures of the proposal density within Monte Carlo schemes. This…

Computation · Statistics 2026-02-24 Fernando Llorente , Luca Martino

We present an improved method for calculating the parallel and perpendicular velocity correlation functions directly from peculiar velocity surveys using weighted maximum-likelihood estimators. A central feature of the new method is the use…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2021-09-29 Yuyu Wang , Sarah Peery , Hume A. Feldman , Richard Watkins