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Recent critiques of Physics Education Research (PER) studies have revoiced the critical issues when drawing causal inferences from observational data where no intervention is present. In response to a call for a "causal reasoning primer",…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-25 Vidushi Adlakha , Eric Kuo

Distributed storage systems and databases are widely used by various types of applications. Transactional access to these storage systems is an important abstraction allowing application programmers to consider blocks of actions (i.e.,…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2023-06-22 Sidi Mohamed Beillahi , Ahmed Bouajjani , Constantin Enea

Between the two dominant schools of thought in statistics, namely, Bayesian and classical/frequentist, a main difference is that the former is grounded in the mathematically rigorous theory of probability while the latter is not. In this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-22 Ryan Martin

The common cause principle for two random variables $A$ and $B$ is examined in the case of causal insufficiency, when their common cause $C$ is known to exist, but only the joint probability of $A$ and $B$ is observed. As a result, $C$…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2024-07-26 A. Hovhannisyan , A. E. Allahverdyan

This paper examines methods of causal inference based on groupwise matching when we observe multiple large groups of individuals over several periods. We formulate causal inference validity through a generalized matching condition,…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-24 Ratzanyel Rincón , Kyungchul Song

Structural causal models are the basic modelling unit in Pearl's causal theory; in principle they allow us to solve counterfactuals, which are at the top rung of the ladder of causation. But they often contain latent variables that limit…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-11-23 Marco Zaffalon , Alessandro Antonucci , Rafael Cabañas

This PhD thesis contains several contributions to the field of statistical causal modeling. Statistical causal models are statistical models embedded with causal assumptions that allow for the inference and reasoning about the behavior of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-05 Martin Emil Jakobsen

Semiparametric inference on average causal effects from observational data is based on assumptions yielding identification of the effects. In practice, several distinct identifying assumptions may be plausible; an analyst has to make a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-07 Tetiana Gorbach , Xavier de Luna , Juha Karvanen , Ingeborg Waernbaum

Causal discovery methods based on the PC algorithm are proven to be sound if all structural assumptions are fulfilled and all conditional independence tests are correct. This idealized setting is rarely given in real data. In this work, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-19 Sofia Faltenbacher , Jonas Wahl , Rebecca Herman , Jakob Runge

In this expository paper, we consider the problem of causal inference and efficient estimation for the counterfactual survivor function. This problem has previously been considered in the literature in several papers, each relying on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-02 Benjamin R. Baer , Ashkan Ertefaie , Robert L. Strawderman

Causal effect estimation from observational data is an important and much studied research topic. The instrumental variable (IV) and local causal discovery (LCD) patterns are canonical examples of settings where a closed-form expression…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-09-19 Ioan Gabriel Bucur , Tom Claassen , Tom Heskes

Built upon the concept of causal faithfulness, the so-called causal discovery algorithms propose the breakdown of mutual information (MI) and conditional mutual information (CMI) into sets of variables to reveal causal influences. These…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-08-09 Tiago Martinelli , Diogo O. Soares-Pinto , Francisco A. Rodrigues

Knowledge of the underlying causal relations is essential for inferring the effect of interventions in complex systems. In a widely studied approach, structural causal models postulate noisy functional relations among interacting variables,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-21 David Strieder , Mathias Drton

A structural causal model is made of endogenous (manifest) and exogenous (latent) variables. We show that endogenous observations induce linear constraints on the probabilities of the exogenous variables. This allows to exactly map a causal…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-08-04 Marco Zaffalon , Alessandro Antonucci , Rafael Cabañas

Robustness to distribution shift and fairness have independently emerged as two important desiderata required of modern machine learning models. While these two desiderata seem related, the connection between them is often unclear in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-13 Maggie Makar , Alexander D'Amour

To draw scientifically meaningful conclusions and build reliable models of quantitative phenomena, cause and effect must be taken into consideration (either implicitly or explicitly). This is particularly challenging when the measurements…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-11 Max A. Little , Reham Badawy

The difficulty of explaining non-local correlations in a fixed causal structure sheds new light on the old debate on whether space and time are to be seen as fundamental. Refraining from assuming space-time as given a priori has a number of…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2018-01-15 Ämin Baumeler , Stefan Wolf

Causal inference studies whether the presence of a variable influences an observed outcome. As measured by quantities such as the "average treatment effect," this paradigm is employed across numerous biological fields, from vaccine and drug…

It is shown that the fiducial distribution in a group model, or more generally a quasigroup model, determines the optimal equivariant frequentist inference procedures. The proof does not rely on existence of invariant measures, and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-04-09 Gunnar Taraldsen , Bo Henry Lindqvist

Recently, there has been considerable progress on designing algorithms with provable guarantees -- typically using linear algebraic methods -- for parameter learning in latent variable models. But designing provable algorithms for inference…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-05-30 Sanjeev Arora , Rong Ge , Frederic Koehler , Tengyu Ma , Ankur Moitra