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We establish finite-sample guarantees for efficient proper learning of bounded-degree polytrees, a rich class of high-dimensional probability distributions and a subclass of Bayesian networks, a widely-studied type of graphical model.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-23 Davin Choo , Joy Qiping Yang , Arnab Bhattacharyya , Clément L. Canonne

Bayesian hypothesis testing is re-examined from the perspective of an a priori assessment of the test statistic distribution under the alternative. By assessing the distribution of an observable test statistic, rather than prior parameter…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-28 Hedibert F. Lopes , Nicholas G. Polson

Probabilistic independence can dramatically simplify the task of eliciting, representing, and computing with probabilities in large domains. A key technique in achieving these benefits is the idea of graphical modeling. We survey existing…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-21 Fahiem Bacchus , Adam J. Grove

We consider the Bayesian optimal filtering problem: i.e. estimating some conditional statistics of a latent time-series signal from an observation sequence. Classical approaches often rely on the use of assumed or estimated transition and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-16 Adrian N. Bishop , Edwin V. Bonilla

We study the family of network models derived by requiring the expected properties of a graph ensemble to match a given set of measurements of a real-world network, while maximizing the entropy of the ensemble. Models of this type play the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 Juyong Park , M. E. J. Newman

Although there is a significant literature on the asymptotic theory of Bayes factor, the set-ups considered are usually specialized and often involves independent and identically distributed data. Even in such specialized cases, mostly weak…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-04-18 Debashis Chatterjee , Trisha Maitra , Sourabh Bhattacharya

The clique tree algorithm is the standard method for doing inference in Bayesian networks. It works by manipulating clique potentials - distributions over the variables in a clique. While this approach works well for many networks, it is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-30 Daphne Koller , Uri Lerner , Dragomir Anguelov

Recent decades have seen an interest in prediction problems for which Bayesian methodology has been used ubiquitously. Sampling from or approximating the posterior predictive distribution in a Bayesian model allows one to make inferential…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-09-12 Giri Gopalan

Graphs are ubiquitous in modelling relational structures. Recent endeavours in machine learning for graph-structured data have led to many architectures and learning algorithms. However, the graph used by these algorithms is often…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-25 Soumyasundar Pal , Saber Malekmohammadi , Florence Regol , Yingxue Zhang , Yishi Xu , Mark Coates

This paper introduces a new approach to the study of rates of convergence for posterior distributions. It is a natural extension of a recent approach to the study of Bayesian consistency. In particular, we improve on current rates of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-08-22 Stephen G. Walker , Antonio Lijoi , Igor Prünster

It appeared recently that the classical random graph model used to represent real-world complex networks does not capture their main properties. Since then, various attempts have been made to provide accurate models. We study here a model…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-03-22 Jean-Loup Guillaume , Matthieu Latapy

This paper considers the problem of testing the maximum in-degree of the Bayes net underlying an unknown probability distribution $P$ over $\{0,1\}^n$, given sample access to $P$. We show that the sample complexity of the problem is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-17 Vipul Arora , Arnab Bhattacharyya , Clément L. Canonne , Joy Qiping Yang

Asymptotic properties of random regular graphs are object of extensive study in mathematics. In this note we argue, based on theory of spin glasses, that in random regular graphs the maximum cut size asymptotically equals the number of…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2010-02-25 Lenka Zdeborová , Stefan Boettcher

The main contribution of this article is a new prior distribution over directed acyclic graphs, which gives larger weight to sparse graphs. This distribution is intended for structured Bayesian networks, where the structure is given by an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-04-28 Felix L. Rios , John M. Noble , Timo J. T. Koski

Attack graphs are a powerful tool for security risk assessment by analysing network vulnerabilities and the paths attackers can use to compromise network resources. The uncertainty about the attacker's behaviour makes Bayesian networks…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2016-11-07 Luis Muñoz-González , Daniele Sgandurra , Martín Barrère , Emil Lupu

Bayesian networks are probabilistic graphical models widely employed to understand dependencies in high dimensional data, and even to facilitate causal discovery. Learning the underlying network structure, which is encoded as a directed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-03 Jack Kuipers , Polina Suter , Giusi Moffa

Conjugate pairs of distributions over infinite dimensional spaces are prominent in statistical learning theory, particularly due to the widespread adoption of Bayesian nonparametric methodologies for a host of models and applications. Much…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-01-12 Robert Finn , Brian Kulis

Moral graphs were introduced in the 1980s as an intermediate step when transforming a Bayesian network to a junction tree, on which exact belief propagation can be efficiently done. The moral graph of a Bayesian network can be trivially…

Computational Complexity · Computer Science 2019-03-07 Yang Li , Lloyd Allison , Kevin Korb

In Bayesian networks, exact belief propagation is achieved through message passing algorithms. These algorithms (ex: inward and outward) provide only a recursive definition of the corresponding messages. In contrast, when working on hidden…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-01-24 G. Nuel

We discuss two sampling schemes for selecting random subnets from a network: Random sampling and connectivity dependent sampling, and investigate how the degree distribution of a node in the network is affected by the two types of sampling.…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 Michael P. H. Stumpf , Carsten Wiuf