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Models of stochastic processes are widely used in almost all fields of science. Theory validation, parameter estimation, and prediction all require model calibration and statistical inference using data. However, data are almost always…

Computation · Statistics 2022-09-07 David J. Warne , Thomas P. Prescott , Ruth E. Baker , Matthew J. Simpson

Monte Carlo simulations are one of the major tools in statistical physics, complex system science, and other fields, and an increasing number of these simulations is run on distributed systems like clusters or grids. This raises the issue…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-07-03 Heiko Bauke , Stephan Mertens

The integration of intermittent and stochastic renewable energy resources requires increased flexibility in the operation of the electric grid. Storage, broadly speaking, provides the flexibility of shifting energy over time; network, on…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-11-05 Junjie Qin , Yinlam Chow , Jiyan Yang , Ram Rajagopal

We describe an adaptive importance sampling algorithm for rare events that is based on a dual stochastic control formulation of a path sampling problem. Specifically, we focus on path functionals that have the form of cumulate generating…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-01-30 Omar Kebiri , Lara Neureither , Carsten Hartmann

This paper proposes a new formulation for the dynamic resource allocation problem, which converts the traditional MDP model with known parameters and no capacity constraints to a new model with uncertain parameters and a resource capacity…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-11-10 Onur Demiray , Evrim Didem Güneş , Lerzan Örmeci

In large-scale systems there are fundamental challenges when centralised techniques are used for task allocation. The number of interactions is limited by resource constraints such as on computation, storage, and network communication. We…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-05-12 Niall Creech , Natalia Criado Pacheco , Simon Miles

This paper is on Bayesian inference for parametric statistical models that are defined by a stochastic simulator which specifies how data is generated. Exact sampling is then possible but evaluating the likelihood function is typically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-02 Borislav Ikonomov , Michael U. Gutmann

In this article we consider computing expectations w.r.t.~probability laws associated to a certain class of stochastic systems. In order to achieve such a task, one must not only resort to numerical approximation of the expectation, but…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-30 Ajay Jasra , Kengo Kamatani , Kody Law , Yan Zhou

In this paper we study randomized optimal stopping problems and consider corresponding forward and backward Monte Carlo based optimisation algorithms. In particular we prove the convergence of the proposed algorithms and derive the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-02-05 Christian Bayer , Denis Belomestny , Paul Hager , Paolo Pigato , John Schoenmakers

Efficient methods to provide sub-optimal solutions to non-convex optimization problems with knowledge of the solution's sub-optimality would facilitate the widespread application of nonlinear optimal control algorithms. To that end,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-04-10 Prithvi Akella , Aaron D. Ames

A Monte Carlo algorithm is said to be adaptive if it automatically calibrates its current proposal distribution using past simulations. The choice of the parametric family that defines the set of proposal distributions is critical for good…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-11-11 Christian Schäfer , Nicolas Chopin

The allocation problem for multivariate stratified random sampling as a problem of stochastic matrix integer mathematical programming is considered. With these aims the asymptotic normality of sample covariance matrices for each strata is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-05-18 Jose A. Diaz-Garcia , Rogelio Ramos-Quiroga

Monte Carlo sampling techniques have broad applications in machine learning, Bayesian posterior inference, and parameter estimation. Often the target distribution takes the form of a product distribution over a dataset with a large number…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-19 Charles Matthews , Jonathan Weare

When looking for a solution, deterministic methods have the enormous advantage that they do find global optima. Unfortunately, they are very CPU-intensive, and are useless on untractable NP-hard problems that would require thousands of…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2011-12-20 Pierre Collet , Jean-Philippe Rennard

Resource allocation for cloud services is a complex task due to the diversity of the services and the dynamic workloads. One way to address this is by overprovisioning which results in high cost due to the unutilized resources. A much more…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2015-03-10 Galia Shabtai , Danny Raz , Yuval Shavitt

We provide a general methodology for unbiased estimation for intractable stochastic models. We consider situations where the target distribution can be written as an appropriate limit of distributions, and where conventional approaches…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-01 Sergios Agapiou , Gareth O. Roberts , Sebastian J. Vollmer

The Multilevel Monte Carlo method is an efficient variance reduction technique. It uses a sequence of coarse approximations to reduce the computational cost in uncertainty quantification applications. The method is nowadays often considered…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-06-15 Pieterjan Robbe , Dirk Nuyens , Stefan Vandewalle

The trace of a matrix function f(A), most notably of the matrix inverse, can be estimated stochastically using samples< x,f(A)x> if the components of the random vectors x obey an appropriate probability distribution. However such a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-08-26 Andreas Frommer , Mostafa Nasr Khalil , Gustavo Ramirez-Hidalgo

Any strategy used to distribute a robot ensemble over a set of sequential tasks is subject to inaccuracy due to robot-level uncertainties and environmental influences on the robots' behavior. We approach the problem of inaccuracy during…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-12-21 Thales C. Silva , Victoria Edwards , M. Ani Hsieh

In the context of Monte Carlo sampling for lattice models, the complexity of the energy landscape often leads to Markov chains being trapped in local optima, thereby increasing the correlation between samples and reducing sampling…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-10-29 Jiewei Ding , Jiahao Su , Ho-Kin Tang , Wing Chi Yu
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