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We propose a method for combining probabilistic outputs of classifiers to make a single consensus class prediction when no further information about the individual classifiers is available, beyond that they have been trained for the same…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-02 Jordan F. Masakuna , Simukai W. Utete , Steve Kroon

While belief functions may be seen formally as a generalization of probabilistic distributions, the question of the interactions between belief functions and probability is still an issue in practice. This question is difficult, since the…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2011-10-03 Frederic Dambreville

Identifying meaningful relationships between the price movements of financial assets is a challenging but important problem in a variety of financial applications. However with recent research, particularly those using machine learning and…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-02-21 Rian Dolphin , Barry Smyth , Ruihai Dong

Inappropriate use of Dempster's rule of combination has led some authors to reject the Dempster-Shafer model, arguing that it leads to supposedly unacceptable conclusions when defaults are involved. A most classic example is about the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-05 Philippe Smets , Yen-Teh Hsia

In the canonical examples underlying Shafer-Dempster theory, beliefs over the hypotheses of interest are derived from a probability model for a set of auxiliary hypotheses. Beliefs are derived via a compatibility relation connecting the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-11 Kathryn Blackmond Laskey

We present examples where the use of belief functions provided sound and elegant solutions to real life problems. These are essentially characterized by ?missing' information. The examples deal with 1) discriminant analysis using a learning…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-30 Philippe Smets

Experts' beliefs embody a present state of knowledge. It is desirable to take this knowledge into account when doing analyses or making decisions. Yet ranking experts based on the merit of their beliefs is a difficult task. In this paper we…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-10 Duco Veen , Diederick Stoel , Naomi Schalken , Rens van de Schoot

We revisit logistic regression and its nonlinear extensions, including multilayer feedforward neural networks, by showing that these classifiers can be viewed as converting input or higher-level features into Dempster-Shafer mass functions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-13 Thierry Denoeux

The belief function approach to uncertainty quantification as proposed in the Demspter-Shafer theory of evidence is established upon the general mathematical models for set-valued observations, called random sets. Set-valued predictions are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-16 Shireen Kudukkil Manchingal , Fabio Cuzzolin

This article describes an approach to incorporate expert opinion on observable quantities through the use of a loss function which updates a prior belief as opposed to specifying parameters on the priors. Eliciting information on observable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-14 Philip Cooney , Arthur White

Objectives: The aim of this paper is to contrast the retrospective and prospective use of experts beliefs in choosing between survival models in economic evaluations. Methods: The use of experts retrospective (posterior) beliefs is…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-15 J. W. Stevens , M. Orr

We propose a method for an agent to revise its incomplete probabilistic beliefs when a new piece of propositional information is observed. In this work, an agent's beliefs are represented by a set of probabilistic formulae -- a belief base.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-04-08 Gavin Rens , Thomas Meyer , Giovanni Casini

By analyzing the relationships among chance, weight of evidence and degree of beliefwe show that the assertion "probability functions are special cases of belief functions" and the assertion "Dempster's rule can be used to combine belief…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-28 Pei Wang

This paper investigates the issues of combination and normalization of interval-valued belief structures within the framework of Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence. Existing approaches are reviewed and thoroughly analyzed. The advantages…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-11-30 Miao Qin , Yongchuan Tang

We characterize a notion of confidence that arises in learning or updating beliefs: the amount of trust one has in incoming information and its impact on the belief state. This learner's confidence can be used alongside (and is easily…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-18 Oliver Ethan Richardson

The canonical problem of solving a system of linear equations arises in numerous contexts in information theory, communication theory, and related fields. In this contribution, we develop a solution based upon Gaussian belief propagation…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2008-10-08 Ori Shental , Danny Bickson , Paul H. Siegel , Jack K. Wolf , Danny Dolev

Developing a general information processing model in uncertain environments is fundamental for the advancement of explainable artificial intelligence. Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is a well-known and effective reasoning method for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-09-02 Qianli Zhou , Tianxiang Zhan , Yong Deng

As large language models (LLMs) continue to demonstrate remarkable abilities across various domains, computer scientists are developing methods to understand their cognitive processes, particularly concerning how (and if) LLMs internally…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-03-17 Daniel A. Herrmann , Benjamin A. Levinstein

The issue of confidence factors in Knowledge Based Systems has become increasingly important and Dempster-Shafer (DS) theory has become increasingly popular as a basis for these factors. This paper discusses the need for an empirical…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-15 John F. Lemmer

Conditioning is crucial in applied science when inference involving time series is involved. Belief calculus is an effective way of handling such inference in the presence of epistemic uncertainty -- unfortunately, different approaches to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-04-22 Fabio Cuzzolin