Related papers: Non-asymptotic confidence intervals for MCMC in pr…
There is a growing interest in the literature for adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo methods based on sequences of random transition kernels $\{P_n\}$ where the kernel $P_n$ is allowed to have an invariant distribution $\pi_n$ not…
We develop a martingale approximation approach to studying the limiting behavior of quadratic forms of Markov chains. We use the technique to examine the asymptotic behavior of lag-window estimators in time series and we apply the results…
We consider continuous-time Markov chain on a finite state space X. We assume X can be clustered into several subsets such that the intra-transition rates within these subsets are of order $\mathcal{O}(\frac{1}{\epsilon})$ comparing to the…
To draw inference on serial extremal dependence within heavy-tailed Markov chains, Drees, Segers and Warcho{\l} [Extremes (2015) 18, 369--402] proposed nonparametric estimators of the spectral tail process. The methodology can be extended…
We study an AMOC time series model with an abrupt change in the mean and dependent errors that fulfill certain mixing conditions. We obtain confidence intervals for the unknown change-point via bootstrapping methods. Precisely we use a…
We consider the problem of estimating expectations with respect to a target distribution with an unknown normalizing constant, and where even the unnormalized target needs to be approximated at finite resolution. This setting is ubiquitous…
Bayesian inference for nonlinear diffusions, observed at discrete times, is a challenging task that has prompted the development of a number of algorithms, mainly within the computational statistics community. We propose a new direction,…
Leaving posterior sensitivity concerns aside, non-identifiability of the parameters does not raise a difficulty for Bayesian inference as far as the posterior is proper, but multi-modality or flat regions of the posterior induced by the…
Estimating model parameters of a general family of cure models is always a challenging task mainly due to flatness and multimodality of the likelihood function. In this work, we propose a fully Bayesian approach in order to overcome these…
Standard confidence intervals employed in applied statistical analysis are usually based on asymptotic approximations. Such approximations can be considerably inaccurate in small and moderate sized samples. We derive accurate confidence…
Spectral subsampling MCMC was recently proposed to speed up Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) for long stationary univariate time series by subsampling periodogram observations in the frequency domain. This article extends the approach to…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are employed to sample from a given distribution of interest, whenever either the distribution does not exist in closed form, or, if it does, no efficient method to simulate an independent sample from…
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) is a methodology for sampling approximately from a sequence of probability distributions of increasing dimension and estimating their normalizing constants. We propose here an alternative methodology named…
We present a general framework for accelerating a large class of widely used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. Our approach exploits fast, iterative approximations to the target density to speculatively evaluate many potential…
This paper presents a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to generate approximate posterior samples in retrospective multiple changepoint problems where the number of changes is not known in advance. The method uses conjugate models whereby the…
Standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) admits three fundamental control parameters: the number of chains, the length of the warmup phase, and the length of the sampling phase. These control parameters play a large role in determining the…
We study the approximation of a (finite) continuous-time Markov chain by a Markov chain on a reduced state space, and we provide formal error bounds for the approximated transient distributions in the Wasserstein distance. These bounds…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a popular technique for approximating likelihoods and is often used in parameter estimation when the likelihood functions are analytically intractable. Although the use of ABC is widespread in many…
We discuss a general approach to building non-asymptotic confidence bounds for stochastic optimization problems. Our principal contribution is the observation that a Sample Average Approximation of a problem supplies upper and lower bounds…
We develop a modular approach to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for unnormalized target densities. In this approach, Markov chains are constructed in parallel, each constrained to a subset of the target space. The Monte Carlo…