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We prove a new concentration inequality for U-statistics of order two for uniformly ergodic Markov chains. Working with bounded and $\pi$-canonical kernels, we show that we can recover the convergence rate of Arcones and Gin{\'e} who proved…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-03-21 Quentin Duchemin , Yohann de Castro , Claire Lacour

In a first part, we prove Bernstein-type deviation inequalities for bifurcating Markov chains (BMC) under a geometric ergodicity assumption, completing former results of Guyon and Bitseki Penda, Djellout and Guillin. These preliminary…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-09-11 S. Valère Bitseki Penda , Marc Hoffmann , Adélaïde Olivier

We prove that the absolute spectral gap of any monotone Markov chain coincides with its optimal Ollivier-Ricci curvature, where the word `optimal' refers to the choice of the underlying metric. Moreover, we provide a new expression in terms…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-05-09 Justin Salez

Let $\{W_t\}_{t=1}^{\infty}$ be a finite state stationary Markov chain, and suppose that $f$ is a real-valued function on the state space. If $f$ is bounded, then Gillman's expander Chernoff bound (1993) provides concentration estimates for…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-19 Assaf Naor , Shravas Rao , Oded Regev

The core of generalization theory was developed for independent observations. Some PAC and PAC-Bayes bounds are available for data that exhibit a temporal dependence. However, there are constants in these bounds that depend on properties of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-12 Vahe Karagulyan , Pierre Alquier

Using the renewal approach we prove exponential inequalities for additive functionals and empirical processes of ergodic Markov chains, thus obtaining counterparts of inequalities for sums of independent random variables. The inequalities…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-18 Radosław Adamczak , Witold Bednorz

The second largest eigenvalue of a transition matrix $P$ has connections with many properties of the underlying Markov chain, and especially its convergence rate towards the stationary distribution. In this paper, we give an asymptotic…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-07-27 Simon Coste

We establish Bernstein's inequalities for functions of general (general-state-space and possibly non-reversible) Markov chains. These inequalities achieve sharp variance proxies and encompass the classical Bernstein inequality for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-18 Bai Jiang , Qiang Sun , Jianqing Fan

We analyze the absolute spectral gap of Markov chains on graphs obtained from a cycle of $n$ vertices and perturbed only at approximately $n^{1/\rho}$ random locations with an appropriate, possibly sparse, interconnection structure.…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-07-20 Balázs Gerencsér , Julien M. Hendrickx

We study finite-time spectral rigidity in reversible Markov chains via exact spectral relaxation dynamics. While the underlying identities follow classically from self-adjointness on $L^2(\pi)$, organizing the dynamics around the relaxation…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-19 Qiao Wang

The tail chain of a Markov chain can be used to model the dependence between extreme observations. For a positive recurrent Markov chain, the tail chain aids in describing the limit of a sequence of point processes $\{N_n,n\geq1\}$,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-10-01 Sidney I. Resnick , David Zeber

In this paper we develop a statistical estimation technique to recover the transition kernel $P$ of a Markov chain $X=(X_m)_{m \in \mathbb N}$ in presence of censored data. We consider the situation where only a sub-sequence of $X$ is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-05-05 Flavia Barsotti , Yohann De Castro , Thibault Espinasse , Paul Rochet

It has been well known for some time that for strictly stationary Markov chains that are ``reversible'', that special symmetry provides special extra features in the mathematical theory. This paper here is primarily a purely expository…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-10-04 Richard C. Bradley

Markov chains are a class of probabilistic models that have achieved widespread application in the quantitative sciences. This is in part due to their versatility, but is compounded by the ease with which they can be probed analytically.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-18 Eddie Seabrook , Laurenz Wiskott

We apply coupling techniques in order to prove that the transfer operators associated with random topological Markov chains and non-stationary shift spaces with the big images and preimages-property have a spectral gap.

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-09-14 Manuel Stadlbauer

The utility of a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is, in large part, determined by the size of the spectral gap of the corresponding Markov operator. However, calculating (and even approximating) the spectral gaps of practical Monte Carlo…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-04-08 Qian Qin , James P. Hobert , Kshitij Khare

In this paper we present a tail inequality for the maximum of partial sums of a weakly dependent sequence of random variables that are not necessarily bounded. The class considered includes geometrically and subgeometrically strongly mixing…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-02-04 Florence Merlevède , Magda Peligrad , Emmanuel Rio

We study two types of Metropolis-Hastings (MH) reversiblizations for non-reversible Markov chains with Markov kernel $P$. While the first type is the classical Metropolised version of $P$, we introduce a new self-adjoint kernel which…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-01 Michael C. H. Choi

This paper presents an elementary proof of stochastic stability of a discrete-time reversible Markov chain starting from a Foster-Lyapunov drift condition. Besides its relative simplicity, there are two salient features of the proof: (i) it…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-05-19 Amirhossein Taghvaei , Prashant G. Mehta

We present a recurrence-transience classification for discrete-time Markov chains on manifolds with negative curvature. Our classification depends only on geometric quantities associated to the increments of the chain, defined via the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-11-10 John Armstrong , Tim King