Related papers: Information Geometry and Sequential Monte Carlo
The Markov chain Monte Carlo method is a versatile tool in statistical physics to evaluate multi-dimensional integrals numerically. For the method to work effectively, we must consider the following key issues: the choice of ensemble, the…
Sequential Monte Carlo squared (SMC$^2$; Chopin et al., 2012) methods can be used to sample from the exact posterior distribution of intractable likelihood state space models. These methods are the SMC analogue to particle Markov chain…
A Monte Carlo algorithm is said to be adaptive if it automatically calibrates its current proposal distribution using past simulations. The choice of the parametric family that defines the set of proposal distributions is critical for good…
In statistical data assimilation (SDA) and supervised machine learning (ML), we wish to transfer information from observations to a model of the processes underlying those observations. For SDA, the model consists of a set of differential…
We propose kernel sequential Monte Carlo (KSMC), a framework for sampling from static target densities. KSMC is a family of sequential Monte Carlo algorithms that are based on building emulator models of the current particle system in a…
We introduce a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method that is designed to sample from target distributions with irregular geometry using an adaptive scheme. In cases where targets exhibit non-Gaussian behaviour, we propose that adaption…
Parameter estimation for discretely observed Markov processes is a challenging problem. However, simulation of Markov processes is straightforward using the Gillespie algorithm. We exploit this ease of simulation to develop an effective…
In this article we develop a new sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method for multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo estimation. In particular, the method can be used to estimate expectations with respect to a target probability distribution over an…
We propose a sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo (SMCMC) algorithm to sample from a sequence of probability distributions, corresponding to posterior distributions at different times in on-line applications. SMCMC proceeds as in usual MCMC…
We show how to speed up Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) for Bayesian inference in large data problems by data subsampling. SMC sequentially updates a cloud of particles through a sequence of distributions, beginning with a distribution that is…
Markov chain Monte Carlo methods have become popular in statistics as versatile techniques to sample from complicated probability distributions. In this work, we propose a method to parameterize and train transition kernels of Markov chains…
Many recent Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers leverage continuous dynamics to define a transition kernel that efficiently explores a target distribution. In tandem, a focus has been on devising scalable variants that subsample the…
In several implementations of Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods it is natural, and important in terms of algorithmic efficiency, to exploit the information of the history of the samples to optimally tune their subsequent propagations. In…
Preliminary mission design of low-thrust spacecraft trajectories in the Circular Restricted Three-Body Problem is a global search characterized by a complex objective landscape and numerous local minima. Formulating the problem as sampling…
Sequential Monte Carlo Squared (SMC$^2$) is a Bayesian method which can infer the states and parameters of non-linear, non-Gaussian state-space models. The standard random-walk proposal in SMC$^2$ faces challenges, particularly with…
Recently developed adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have been applied successfully to many problems in Bayesian statistics. Grapham is a new open source implementation covering several such methods, with emphasis on…
In this paper, we examine the computational complexity of sampling from a Bayesian posterior (or pseudo-posterior) using the Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm (MALA). MALA first employs a discrete-time Langevin SDE to propose a new…
The identification of parameters in mathematical models using noisy observations is a common task in uncertainty quantification. We employ the framework of Bayesian inversion: we combine monitoring and observational data with prior…
This paper develops a novel sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approach for joint state and parameter estimation that can deal efficiently with abruptly changing parameters which is a common case when tracking maneuvering targets. The approach…
Many Bayesian inference problems require exploring the posterior distribution of high-dimensional parameters that represent the discretization of an underlying function. This work introduces a family of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…