Related papers: A note on estimating stochastic volatility and its…

In the present paper, we first revisit the volatility estimation approach proposed by N. Kunitomo and S. Sato, and second, we show that the volatility estimator proposed by P. Malliavin and M.E. Mancino can be understood in a unified way by…

This paper provides a semiparametric model of estimating states of the volatility defined as the squared diffusion coefficient of a stochastic differential equation. Without assuming any functional form of the volatility function, we…

We develop an estimator for the high-dimensional covariance matrix of a locally stationary process with a smoothly varying trend and use this statistic to derive consistent predictors in non-stationary time series. In contrast to the…

In this brief paper, we present a simple approach to estimate the variance of measurement noise with time-varying 1-D signals. The proposed approach exploits the relationship between the noise variance and the variance of the prediction…

In this article we look at stochastic processes with uncertain parameters, and consider different ways in which information is obtained when carrying out observations. For example we focus on the case of a the random evolution of a traded…

This paper proposes a new pathwise sensitivity estimator for chaotic SDEs. By introducing a spring term between the original and perturbated SDEs, we derive a new estimator by importance sampling. The variance of the new estimator increases…

This paper explores the nonparametric estimation of the volatility component in a heteroscedastic scalar-on-function regression model, where the underlying discrete-time process is ergodic and subject to a missing-at-random mechanism. We…

We consider the problem of estimating parameter sensitivity for Markovian models of reaction networks. Sensitivity values measure the responsiveness of an output to the model parameters. They help in analyzing the network, understanding its…

We develop a stochastic calculus that makes it easy to capture a variety of predictable transformations of semimartingales such as changes of variables, stochastic integrals, and their compositions. The framework offers a unified treatment…

Working on different aspects of algorithmic trading we empirically discovered a new market invariant. It links together the volatility of the instrument with its traded volume, the average spread and the volume in the order book. The…

This article introduces a dynamic spatiotemporal stochastic volatility (SV) model with explicit terms for the spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal spillover effects. Moreover, the model includes time-invariant site-specific constant…

We study the parameter estimation for parabolic, linear, second-order, stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) observing a mild solution on a discrete grid in time and space. A high-frequency regime is considered where the mesh of…

The Heston stochastic volatility model is a standard model for valuing financial derivatives, since it can be calibrated using semi-analytical formulas and captures the most basic structure of the market for financial derivatives with…

We introduce a new method to price American-style options on underlying investments governed by stochastic volatility (SV) models. The method does not require the volatility process to be observed. Instead, it exploits the fact that the…

We propose a new, computationally efficient, sparsity adaptive changepoint estimator for detecting changes in unknown subsets of a high-dimensional data sequence. Assuming the data sequence is Gaussian, we prove that the new method…

In this paper we introduce a multilevel specification with stochastic volatility for repeated cross-sectional data. Modelling the time dynamics in repeated cross sections requires a suitable adaptation of the multilevel framework where the…

This paper expands traditional stochastic volatility models by allowing for time-varying skewness without imposing it. While dynamic asymmetry may capture the likely direction of future asset returns, it comes at the risk of leading to…

Rough volatility models are continuous time stochastic volatility models where the volatility process is driven by a fractional Brownian motion with the Hurst parameter smaller than half, and have attracted much attention since a seminal…

We show how one can actually take advantage of the strongly non-Gaussian nature of the fluctuations of financial assets to simplify the calculation of the Value-at-Risk of complex non linear portfolios. The resulting equations are not hard…

We propose a new optimization framework for aleatoric uncertainty estimation in regression problems. Existing methods can quantify the error in the target estimation, but they tend to underestimate it. To obtain the predictive uncertainty…