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We introduce a variational algorithm to estimate the likelihood of a rare event within a nonequilibrium molecular dynamics simulation through the evaluation of an optimal control force. Optimization of a control force within a chosen basis…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-01-14 Avishek Das , David T. Limmer

This work is about parameter estimation for a fast-slow stochastic system with non-Gaussian $\alpha$-stable L\'evy noise. When the observations are only available for slow components, a system parameter is estimated and the accuracy for…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2020-02-28 Ying Chao , Pingyuan Wei , Jinqiao Duan

Switching dynamical systems are an expressive model class for the analysis of time-series data. As in many fields within the natural and engineering sciences, the systems under study typically evolve continuously in time, it is natural to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-19 Lukas Köhs , Bastian Alt , Heinz Koeppl

We introduce a linear-scaling stochastic method to compute real-space maps of any positive local spectral operator in a tight-binding model. By employing positive-definite estimators, the sampling error at each site can be rigorously…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2025-11-18 H. P. Veiga , D. R. Pinheiro , J. P. Santos Pires , J. M. Viana Parente Lopes

We present a scalable approach to performing approximate fully Bayesian inference in generic state space models. The proposed method is an alternative to particle MCMC that provides fully Bayesian inference of both the dynamic latent states…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-13 Marcel Hirt , Petros Dellaportas

Given a sequence of observations from a discrete-time, finite-state hidden Markov model, we would like to estimate the sampling distribution of a statistic. The bootstrap method is employed to approximate the confidence regions of a…

Computation · Statistics 2009-09-29 Cheng-Der Fuh , Inchi Hu

Three major challenges in reinforcement learning are the complex dynamical systems with large state spaces, the costly data acquisition processes, and the deviation of real-world dynamics from the training environment deployment. To…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Shyam Sundhar Ramesh , Pier Giuseppe Sessa , Yifan Hu , Andreas Krause , Ilija Bogunovic

The notion of stability can be generalised to point processes by defining the scaling operation in a randomised way: scaling a configuration by $t$ corresponds to letting such a configuration evolve according to a Markov branching particle…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-10-28 Giacomo Zanella , Sergei Zuyev

We consider an optimal stopping problem where a constraint is placed on the distribution of the stopping time. Reformulating the problem in terms of so-called measure-valued martingales allows us to transform the marginal constraint into an…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-03-27 Sigrid Källblad

The methods of the probability theory have been used in order to build up a new model of hysteresis. It turns out that the reversal points of the control parameter (e. g., the magnetic field) are Markov points which determine the stochastic…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 L. Pal

We introduce a new method to accurately and efficiently estimate the effective dynamics of collective variables in molecular simulations. Such reduced dynamics play an essential role in the study of a broad class of processes, ranging from…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-03-28 Hadrien Vroylandt , Ludovic Goudenège , Pierre Monmarché , Fabio Pietrucci , Benjamin Rotenberg

This is an expository review paper illustrating the ``martingale method'' for proving many-server heavy-traffic stochastic-process limits for queueing models, supporting diffusion-process approximations. Careful treatment is given to an…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-12-28 Guodong Pang , Rishi Talreja , Ward Whitt

The stochastic volatility model is a popular tool for modeling the volatility of assets. The model is a nonlinear and non-Gaussian state space model, and consequently is difficult to fit. Many approaches, both classical and Bayesian, have…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-22 Chen Gong , David S. Stoffer

Estimating the transition dynamics of controlled Markov chains is crucial in fields such as time series analysis, reinforcement learning, and system exploration. Traditional non-parametric density estimation methods often assume independent…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-21 Imon Banerjee , Vinayak Rao , Harsha Honnappa

We extend the Longstaff-Schwartz algorithm for approximately solving optimal stopping problems on high-dimensional state spaces. We reformulate the optimal stopping problem for Markov processes in discrete time as a generalized statistical…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Daniel Egloff

We present a new methodology for computing sensitivities in evolutionary systems using a model-driven low-rank approximation. To this end, we formulate a variational principle that seeks to minimize the distance between the time derivative…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-12-29 Michael Donello , Mark Carpenter , Hessam Babaee

This paper presents a control variate-based Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for efficient sampling from the probability simplex, with a focus on applications in large-scale Bayesian models such as latent Dirichlet allocation. Standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-02 Francesco Barile , Christopher Nemeth

Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers are a class of stochastic algorithms for Monte Carlo integral estimation w.r.t. probability distributions, which combine elements of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and importance sampling/resampling…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Andreas Eberle , Carlo Marinelli

In this paper, we consider semi-Markov processes whose transition times and transition probabilities depend on a small parameter $\varepsilon$. Understanding the asymptotic behavior of such processes is needed in order to study the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-11-08 Leonid Koralov , Ishfaaq Mohammed Imtiyas

We provide an overview on how to use the measurable selection techniques to derive the dynamic programming principle for a general stochastic optimal control/stopping problem. By considering its martingale problem formulation on the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-10-03 Nicole El Karoui , Xiaolu Tan