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Shifting our electricity generation from fossil fuel to renewable energy sources introduces large fluctuations to the power system. Here, we demonstrate how increased fluctuations, reduced damping and reduced intertia may undermine the…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2017-06-14 Benjamin Schäfer , Moritz Matthiae , Xiaozhu Zhang , Martin Rohden , Marc Timme , Dirk Witthaut

We provide direct evidence of market manipulation at the beginning of the financial crisis in November 2007. The type of manipulation, a "bear raid," would have been prevented by a regulation that was repealed by the Securities and Exchange…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2012-01-04 Vedant Misra , Marco Lagi , Yaneer Bar-Yam

Recent literature seek to forecast implied volatility derived from equity, index, foreign exchange, and interest rate options using latent factor and parametric frameworks. Motivated by increased public attention borne out of the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-09-22 Fearghal Kearney , Han Lin Shang , Lisa Sheenan

We study the relation between stock price changes and the difference in the number of sell and buy orders. Using a soft spin model, we describe the price impact of order imbalances and find an analogy to the fluctuation-dissipation theorem…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-11-07 Bernd Rosenow

We consider a Nash equilibrium between two high-frequency traders in a simple market impact model with transient price impact and additional quadratic transaction costs. Extending a result by Sch\"oneborn (2008), we prove existence and…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2017-05-10 Alexander Schied , Tao Zhang

Short sales are regarded as negative purchases in textbook asset pricing theory. In reality, however, the symmetry between purchases and short sales is broken by a variety of costs and risks peculiar to the latter. We formulate an optimal…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-03-29 Kristoffer Glover , Hardy Hulley

The Non-Fungible-Token (NFT) market has experienced explosive growth in recent years. According to DappRadar, the total transaction volume on OpenSea, the largest NFT marketplace, reached 34.7 billion dollars in February 2023. However, the…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2023-08-04 Mingxiao Song , Yunsong Liu , Agam Shah , Sudheer Chava

Leveraged ETFs (L-ETFs) are exchange-traded funds that achieve price movements several times greater than an index by holding index-linked futures such as Nikkei Stock Average Index futures. It is known that when the price of an L-ETF…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-09 Ryuki Hayase , Takanobu Mizuta , Isao Yagi

Events such as the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 or the COVID-19 pandemic caused significant losses to banks and insurance entities. They also demonstrated the importance of using accurate equity risk models and having a risk management…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-09-28 Eduardo Ramos-Pérez , Pablo J. Alonso-González , José Javier Núñez-Velázquez

A technique for on-line estimation of spot volatility for high-frequency data is developed. The algorithm works directly on the transaction data and updates the volatility estimate immediately after the occurrence of a new transaction.…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-01-15 Rainer Dahlhaus , Jan C. Neddermeyer

The basis of arbitrage methods depends on the circulation of information within the framework of the financial market. Following the work of Modigliani and Miller, it has become a vital part of discussions related to the study of financial…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-09-12 Kiran Sharma , Abhijit Dutta , Rupak Mukherjee

We investigate the performance of dynamic portfolios constructed using more than 21,000 technical trading rules on 12 categorical and country-specific markets over the 2004-2015 study period, on rolling forward structures of different…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-06-14 Georgios Sermpinis , Arman Hassanniakalager , Charalampos Stasinakis , Ioannis Psaradellis

We analyze the daily stock data of the Nasdaq Composite index in the 22-year period 1992-2013 and identify market states as clusters of correlation matrices with similar correlation structures. We investigate the stability of the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-22 Desislava Chetalova , Rudi Schäfer , Thomas Guhr

We study the volatility of the MIB30-stock-index high-frequency data from November 28, 1994 through September 15, 1995. Our aim is to empirically characterize the volatility random walk in the framework of continuous-time finance. To this…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-02 Marco Raberto , Enrico Scalas , Gianaurelio Cuniberti , Massimo Riani

Experimental data are presented on particle correlations and fluctuations in various high-energy multiparticle collisions, with special emphasis on evidence for scaling-law evolution in small phase-space domains. The notions of…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2009-10-28 E. A. De Wolf , I. M. Dremin , W. Kittel

The composition of natural liquidity has been changing over time. An analysis of intraday volumes for the S&P500 constituent stocks illustrates that (i) volume surprises, i.e., deviations from their respective forecasts, are correlated…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2018-11-15 Seungki Min , Costis Maglaras , Ciamac C. Moallemi

In this paper, we study the effects of fill probabilities and adverse fills on the trading strategy simulation process. We specifically focus on a stochastic optimal control market-making problem and test the strategy on ES (E-mini S\&P…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-04-01 Luca Lalor , Anatoliy Swishchuk

Financial markets have been extensively studied as highly complex evolving systems. In this paper, we quantify financial price fluctuations through a coupled dynamical system composed of phase oscillators. We find a Financial Coherence and…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-05-10 Shangmei Zhao , Qiuchao Xie , Qing Lu , Xin Jiang , Wei Chen

This paper investigates the cryptocurrency network of the FTX exchange during the collapse of its native token, FTT, to understand how network structures adapt to significant financial disruptions, by exploiting vertex centrality measures.…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2025-05-20 Riccardo De Blasis , Luca Galati , Rosanna Grassi , Giorgio Rizzini

It is shown that an event sample from the Monte Carlo simulation of a random cascading \alpha model with fixed dynamical fluctuation strength is intermittent but not chaotic, while the variance of dynamical fluctuation strength in different…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2007-05-23 Jinghua Fu , Lianshou Liu , Yuanfang Wu