Related papers: Model checks for the volatility under microstructu…
We propose to model multivariate volatility processes based on the newly defined conditionally uncorrelated components (CUCs). This model represents a parsimonious representation for matrix-valued processes. It is flexible in the sense that…
We propose a new adequacy test and a graphical evaluation tool for nonlinear dynamic models. The proposed techniques can be applied in any setup where parametric conditional distribution of the data is specified, in particular to models…
This paper proposes a Kolmogorov-Smirnov type statistic and a Cram\'er-von Mises type statistic to test linearity in semi-functional partially linear regression models. Our test statistics are based on a residual marked empirical process…
We propose a new estimator of high-dimensional spot volatility matrices satisfying a low-rank plus sparse structure from noisy and asynchronous high-frequency data collected for an ultra-large number of assets. The noise processes are…
We consider the problem of the construction of the Goodness-of-Fit test in the case of continuous time observations of a diffusion process with small noise. The null hypothesis is parametric and we use a minimum distance estimator of the…
Multi-fidelity methods are prominently used when cheaply-obtained, but possibly biased and noisy, observations must be effectively combined with limited or expensive true data in order to construct reliable models. This arises in both…
This paper proposes a statistical verification framework using Gaussian processes (GPs) for simulation-based verification of stochastic nonlinear systems with parametric uncertainties. Given a small number of stochastic simulations, the…
In this paper, we present a method of estimating the volatility of a signal that displays stochastic noise (such as a risky asset traded on an open market) utilizing Linear Predictive Coding. The main purpose is to associate volatility with…
In a fissile material, the inherent multiplicity of neutrons born through induced fissions leads to correlations in their detection statistics. The correlations between neutrons can be used to trace back some characteristics of the fissile…
Recently, several powerful tools for the reconstruction of stochastic differential equations from measured data sets have been proposed [e.g. Siegert et al., Physics Letters A 243, 275 (1998); Hurn et al., Journal of Time Series Analysis…
Reliability analysis aims at estimating the failure probability of an engineering system. It often requires multiple runs of a limit-state function, which usually relies on computationally intensive simulations. Traditionally, these…
The measures of roughness of the volatility in the litterature are based on the realized volatility of high frequency data. Some authors show that this leads to a biased estimate, and does not necessarily indicate roughness of the…
We point out necessary and sufficient conditions of uniform consistency of nonparametric sets of alternatives for widespread nonparametric tests. Nonparametric sets of alternatives can be defined both in terms of distribution function and…
New goodness-of-fit tests for Markovian models in time series analysis are developed which are based on the difference between a fully nonparametric estimate of the one-step transition distribution function of the observed process and that…
Based on a criterion of mathematical simplicity and consistency with empirical market data, a stochastic volatility model has been obtained with the volatility process driven by fractional noise. Depending on whether the stochasticity…
We first revisit the problem of estimating the spot volatility of an It\^o semimartingale using a kernel estimator. We prove a Central Limit Theorem with optimal convergence rate for a general two-sided kernel. Next, we introduce a new…
We introduce a bootstrap procedure for high-frequency statistics of Brownian semistationary processes. More specifically, we focus on a hypothesis test on the roughness of sample paths of Brownian semistationary processes, which uses an…
We develop a novel continuous-time asymptotic framework for inference on whether the predictive ability of a given forecast model remains stable over time. We formally define forecast instability from the economic forecaster's perspective…
We study the feasibility and noise sensitivity of portfolio optimization under some downside risk measures (Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, and semivariance) when they are estimated by fitting a parametric distribution on a finite sample…
We show how pre-averaging can be applied to the problem of measuring the ex-post covariance of financial asset returns under microstructure noise and non-synchronous trading. A pre-averaged realised covariance is proposed, and we present an…