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The problem of determining the correct order of fluctuation of the optimal alignment score of two random strings of length $n$ has been open for several decades. It is known that the biased expected effect of a random letter-change on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-11-26 Saba Amsalu , Raphael Hauser , Heinrich Matzinger

We investigate the order of the variance of the optimal alignments score of two independent iid binary random words having the same length. The letters are equiprobable, but the scoring function is such that one letter has a larger score…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-06-17 Christian Houdré , Heinrich Matzinger

We present a general approach to the problem of determining tight asymptotic lower bounds for generalized central moments of the optimal alignment score of two independent sequences of i.i.d. random variables. At first, these are obtained…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-28 Ruoting Gong , Christian Houdré , Jüri Lember

We study the space requirements of a sorting algorithm where only items that at the end will be adjacent are kept together. This is equivalent to the following combinatorial problem: Consider a string of fixed length n that starts as a…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Svante Janson

We propose an analytical technique to study large fluctuations and switching from internal noise in complex networks. Using order-disorder kinetics as a generic example, we construct and analyze the most probable, or optimal path of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-09-07 Jason Hindes , Ira B. Schwartz

Consider two independent random strings having same length and taking values uniformly in a common finite alphabet. We study the order of the variance of the length of the longest common subsequences (LCS) of these strings when long blocks,…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-26 S. Amsalu , C. Houdré , H. Matzinger

The problem of the fluctuation of the Longest Common Subsequence (LCS) of two i.i.d. sequences of length $n>0$ has been open for decades. There exist contradicting conjectures on the topic. Chvatal and Sankoff conjectured in 1975 that…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-11-15 Heinrich Matzinger , Felipe Torres

This paper studies a sequential decision problem where payoff distributions are known and where the riskiness of payoffs matters. Equivalently, it studies sequential choice from a repeated set of independent lotteries. The decision-maker is…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-01-02 Zengjing Chen , Larry G. Epstein , Guodong Zhang

From the sampling of data to the initialisation of parameters, randomness is ubiquitous in modern Machine Learning practice. Understanding the statistical fluctuations engendered by the different sources of randomness in prediction is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-03 Bruno Loureiro , Cédric Gerbelot , Maria Refinetti , Gabriele Sicuro , Florent Krzakala

We obtain an explicit formula for the variance of the number of $k$-peaks in a uniformly random permutation. This is then used to obtain an asymptotic formula for the variance of the length of longest $k$-alternating subsequence in random…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-15 Recep Altar Çiçeksiz , Yunus Emre Demirci , Ümit Işlak

There are many ways of establishing upper bounds on fluctuations of random variables, but there is no systematic approach for lower bounds. As a result, lower bounds are unknown in many important problems. This paper introduces a general…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-07-30 Sourav Chatterjee

A modification of the optimal fluctuation approach is applied to study the tails of the free energy distribution function P(F) for an elastic string in quenched disorder both in the regions of the universal behavior of P(F) and in the…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2009-11-13 I. V. Kolokolov , S. E. Korshunov

We consider sequential selection of an alternating subsequence from a sequence of independent, identically distributed, continuous random variables, and we determine the exact asymptotic behavior of an optimal sequentially selected…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-08-15 Alessandro Arlotto , Robert W. Chen , Lawrence A. Shepp , J. Michael Steele

We consider the \mnk{classical} problem of a controller activating (or sampling) sequentially from a finite number of $N \geq 2$ populations, specified by unknown distributions. Over some time horizon, at each time $n = 1, 2, \ldots$, the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-12-18 Wesley Cowan , Michael N. Katehakis

Several methods are available in the literature to stochastically compare random variables and random vectors. We introduce the notion of asymptotic stochastic order for random processes and define four such orders. Various properties and…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-03-03 Sugata Ghosh , Asok K. Nanda

We consider linear elliptic equations in divergence form with stationary random coefficients of integrable correlations. We characterize the fluctuations of a macroscopic observable of a solution to relative order $\frac{d}{2}$, where $d$…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2019-10-25 Mitia Duerinckx , Felix Otto

We find a two term asymptotic expansion for the optimal expected value of a sequentially selected monotone subsequence from a random permutation of length n. A striking feature of this expansion is that tells us that the expected value of…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-16 Peichao Peng , J. Michael Steele

In this paper we develop a unified approach for solving a wide class of sequential selection problems. This class includes, but is not limited to, selection problems with no-information, rank-dependent rewards, and considers both fixed as…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-27 Alexander Goldenshluger , Yaakov Malinovsky , Assaf Zeevi

Using the replica approach and the cavity method, we study the fluctuations of the optimal cost in the random-link matching problem. By means of replica arguments, we derive the exact expression of its variance. Moreover, we study the large…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2019-09-06 Enrico M. Malatesta , Giorgio Parisi , Gabriele Sicuro

The evolution of many stochastic systems is accurately described by random walks on graphs. We here explore the close connection between local steady-state fluctuations of random walks and the global structure of the underlying graph.…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-10-25 M. Bruderer
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