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A major part of the balance sheets of the largest US banks consists of credit card portfolios. Hence, managing the charge-off rates is a vital task for the profitability of the credit card industry. Different macroeconomic conditions affect…
In this contribution we consider the overall risk given as the sum of random subrisks $\mathbf{X}_j$ in the context of value-at-risk (VaR) based risk calculations. If we assume that the undertaking knows the parametric distribution family…
This paper presents analytical solutions to the problem of how to calculate sensible VaR (Value-at-Risk) and ES (Expected Shortfall) contributions in the CreditRisk+ methodology. Via the ES contributions, ES itself can be exactly computed…
The Basel II internal ratings-based (IRB) approach to capital adequacy for credit risk implements an asymptotic single risk factor (ASRF) model. Measurements from the ASRF model of the prevailing state of Australia's economy and the level…
Systemic risk measures quantify the potential risk to an individual financial constituent arising from the distress of entire financial system. As a generalization of two widely applied risk measures, Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall,…
In recent years research on credit risk modelling has mainly focused on default probabilities. Recovery rates are usually modelled independently, quite often they are even assumed constant. Then, however, the structural connection between…
We address the problem of estimating the expected shortfall risk of a financial loss using a finite number of i.i.d. data. It is well known that the classical plug-in estimator suffers from poor statistical performance when faced with…
Credit risk stress testing has become an important risk management device which is used both by banks internally and by regulators. Stress testing is complex because it essentially means projecting a bank's full balance sheet conditional on…
With the rapid advancement of large language models , code generation has become a key benchmark for evaluating LLM capabilities. However, existing benchmarks face two major challenges: (1) the escalating cost of constructing high-quality…
This article proposes a method for measuring the latent risks involved in the recovery process of non performing loans in financial institutions and business firms that deal with collection and recovery processes. To that end, we apply the…
The purpose of this paper is to describe and extend the use of the newly-introduced measure, residual estimation risk. Following the seminal work of Bignozzi and Tsanakas, the quantification of residual estimation risk is proposed in a…
Relational cost analysis aims at formally establishing bounds on the difference in the evaluation costs of two programs. As a particular case, one can also use relational cost analysis to establish bounds on the difference in the evaluation…
Value-at-Risk and its conditional allegory, which takes into account the available information about the economic environment, form the centrepiece of the Basel framework for the evaluation of market risk in the banking sector. In this…
In this paper, we propose a method that provides a useful technique to compare relationship between risks involved that takes customer become defaulter and debt collection process that might make this defaulter recovered. Through estimation…
We present simulated standard curves for the calibration of empirical likelihood ratio (ELR) tests of means. With the help of these curves, the nominal significance level of the ELR test can be adjusted in order to achieve (quasi-) exact…
Parametric insurance contracts translate index measurements to compensation for policyholders' losses using predefined payment schemes. These need to be designed carefully to keep basis risk, i.e. the disparity between payouts and true…
A key goal of the System-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) hazard analysis technique is the identification of loss scenarios - causal factors that could potentially lead to an accident. We propose an approach that aims to assist engineers…
During recent years the counterparty risk subject has received a growing attention because of the so called Basel Accord. In particular the Basel III Accord asks the banks to fulfill finer conditions concerning counterparty credit exposures…
We address the problem that classical risk measures may not detect the tail risk adequately. This can occur for instance due to averaging when calculating the Expected Shortfall. The current literature proposes the so-called adjusted…
Credit estimation and bankruptcy prediction methods have been utilizing Altman's $z$ score method for the last several years. It is reported in many studies that $z$ score is sensitive to changes in accounting figures. Researches have…