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Markov jump processes (MJPs) are continuous-time stochastic processes widely used in a variety of applied disciplines. Inference for MJPs typically proceeds via Markov chain Monte Carlo, the state-of-the-art being a uniformization-based…

Computation · Statistics 2020-04-14 Boqian Zhang , Vinayak Rao

Modern signal processing (SP) methods rely very heavily on probability and statistics to solve challenging SP problems. SP methods are now expected to deal with ever more complex models, requiring ever more sophisticated computational…

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) or diffusions are continuous-valued continuous-time stochastic processes widely used in the applied and mathematical sciences. Simulating paths from these processes is usually an intractable problem,…

Computation · Statistics 2020-05-27 Qi Wang , Vinayak Rao , Yee Whye Teh

We propose a new Monte Carlo method for efficiently sampling trajectories with fixed initial and final conditions in a system with discrete degrees of freedom. The method can be applied to any stochastic process with local interactions,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2012-03-30 Thierry Mora , Aleksandra M. Walczak , Francesco Zamponi

In parameter estimation problems one computes a posterior distribution over uncertain parameters defined jointly by a prior distribution, a model, and noisy data. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is often used for the numerical solution of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-11-15 Matthias Morzfeld , Marcus S. Day , Ray W. Grout , George Shu Heng Pau , Stefan A. Finsterle , John B. Bell

We construct a new framework for accelerating Markov chain Monte Carlo in posterior sampling problems where standard methods are limited by the computational cost of the likelihood, or of numerical models embedded therein. Our approach…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-06 Patrick R. Conrad , Youssef M. Marzouk , Natesh S. Pillai , Aaron Smith

Numerical Generalized Randomized Hamiltonian Monte Carlo is introduced, as a robust, easy to use and computationally fast alternative to conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for continuous target distributions. A wide class of…

Computation · Statistics 2022-02-01 Tore Selland Kleppe

Importance sampling is a variance reduction technique for efficient estimation of rare-event probabilities by Monte Carlo. In standard importance sampling schemes, the system is simulated using an a priori fixed change of measure suggested…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Paul Dupuis , Hui Wang

We propose a sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo (SMCMC) algorithm to sample from a sequence of probability distributions, corresponding to posterior distributions at different times in on-line applications. SMCMC proceeds as in usual MCMC…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-08-20 Yun Yang , David B. Dunson

Various Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are studied to improve upon random walk Metropolis sampling, for simulation from complex distributions. Examples include Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithms, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, and…

Computation · Statistics 2020-05-19 Zexi Song , Zhiqiang Tan

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Giacomo Bottacini , Matteo Torzoni , Andrea Manzoni

In this paper a method based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is proposed to compute the probability of a rare event. The conditional distribution of the underlying process given that the rare event occurs has the probability…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-11-12 Thorbjörn Gudmundsson , Henrik Hult

Monte Carlo simulations are widely used in many areas including particle accelerators. In this lecture, after a short introduction and reviewing of some statistical backgrounds, we will discuss methods such as direct inversion, rejection…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-06-19 Ji Qiang

To sample from a given target distribution, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling relies on constructing an ergodic Markov chain with the target distribution as its invariant measure. For any MCMC method, an important question is how to…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-15 Federica Milinanni , Pierre Nyquist

In this work, we introduce a simple modification of the Monte Carlo algorithm, which we call step Monte Carlo (sMC). The sMC approach allows to simulate processes far from equilibrium and obtain information about the dynamic properties of…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2023-12-15 Dariusz Sztenkiel

Many applications in signal processing require the estimation of some parameters of interest given a set of observed data. More specifically, Bayesian inference needs the computation of {\it a-posteriori} estimators which are often…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-21 Luca Martino

In Monte Carlo calculations of expectation values in lattice quantum field theories, the stochastic variance of the sampling procedure that is used defines the precision of the calculation for a fixed number of samples. If the variance of…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2022-12-07 Cagin Yunus , William Detmold

In this paper, we suggest a novel sampling method for Monte Carlo molecular simulations. In order to perform efficient sampling of molecular systems, it is advantageous to avoid extremely high energy configurations while also retaining the…

Computational Physics · Physics 2019-07-18 Katsuhiro Endo , Daisuke Yuhara , Kenji Yasuoka

The basic problem in equilibrium statistical mechanics is to compute phase space average, in which Monte Carlo method plays a very important role. We begin with a review of nonlocal algorithms for Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation in…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Jian-Sheng Wang

We introduce and demonstrate a new approach to inference in expressive probabilistic programming languages based on particle Markov chain Monte Carlo. Our approach is simple to implement and easy to parallelize. It applies to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-07-10 Frank Wood , Jan Willem van de Meent , Vikash Mansinghka
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