Related papers: Mixture Gaussian Process Conditional Heteroscedast…

We propose a general class of INteger-valued Generalized AutoRegressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic (INGARCH) processes by allowing time-varying mean and dispersion parameters, which we call time-varying dispersion INGARCH (tv-DINGARCH)…

There are various metrics for financial risk, such as value at risk (VaR), expected shortfall, expected/unexpected loss, etc. When estimating these metrics, it was very common to assume Gaussian distribution for the asset returns, which may…

This paper considers a semiparametric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (S-GARCH) model. For this model, we first estimate the time-varying long run component for unconditional variance by the kernel estimator, and…

Standard GPs offer a flexible modelling tool for well-behaved processes. However, deviations from Gaussianity are expected to appear in real world datasets, with structural outliers and shocks routinely observed. In these cases GPs can fail…

We introduce Latent Gaussian Process Regression which is a latent variable extension allowing modelling of non-stationary multi-modal processes using GPs. The approach is built on extending the input space of a regression problem with a…

This survey reviews the existing literature on the most relevant Bayesian inference methods for univariate and multivariate GARCH models. The advantages and drawbacks of each procedure are outlined as well as the advantages of the Bayesian…

This paper presents a unified treatment of Gaussian process models that extends to data from the exponential dispersion family and to survival data. Our specific interest is in the analysis of data sets with predictors that have an a priori…

We construct fractionally integrated continuous-time GARCH models, which capture the observed long range dependence of squared volatility in high-frequency data. Since the usual Molchan-Golosov and Mandelbrot-van-Ness fractional kernels…

Here, we have analysed a GARCH(1,1) model with the aim to fit higher order moments for different companies' stock prices. When we assume a gaussian conditional distribution, we fail to capture any empirical data when fitting the first three…

L\'evy processes are widely used in financial mathematics, telecommunication, economics, queueing theory and natural sciences for modelling. We propose an essentially asymptotically efficient estimation method for the system parameters of…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are commonplace in spatial statistics. Although many non-stationary models have been developed, there is arguably a lack of flexibility compared to equipping each location with its own parameters. However, the…

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are powerful non-parametric Bayesian regression models that allow exact posterior inference, but exhibit high computational and memory costs. In order to improve scalability of GPs, approximate posterior inference…

Time series forecasting represents a significant and challenging task across various fields. Recently, methods based on mode decomposition have dominated the forecasting of complex time series because of the advantages of capturing local…

We propose a novel class of multivariate GARCH models that incorporate realized measures of volatility and correlations. The key innovation is an unconstrained vector parametrization of the conditional correlation matrix, which enables the…

In sensing applications, sensors cannot always measure the latent quantity of interest at the required resolution, sometimes they can only acquire a blurred version of it due the sensor's transfer function. To recover latent signals when…

We propose a new approach to volatility modeling by combining deep learning (LSTM) and realized volatility measures. This LSTM-enhanced realized GARCH framework incorporates and distills modeling advances from financial econometrics, high…

This paper derives the analytic form of the $h$-step ahead prediction density of a GARCH(1,1) process under Gaussian innovations, with a possibly asymmetric news impact curve. The contributions of the paper consists both in the derivation…

This paper introduces a new model for panel data with Markov-switching GARCH effects. The model incorporates a series-specific hidden Markov chain process that drives the GARCH parameters. To cope with the high-dimensionality of the…

Gaussian Process (GP) regression is a flexible non-parametric approach to approximate complex models. In many cases, these models correspond to processes with bounded physical properties. Standard GP regression typically results in a proxy…

It is now widely accepted that volatility models have to incorporate the so-called leverage effect in order to to model the dynamics of daily financial returns.We suggest a new class of multivariate power transformed asymmetric models. It…