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We propose a probabilistic mortality forecasting model that can be applied to derive forecasts for populations with regular and irregular mortality developments. Our model (1) uses rates of mortality improvement to model dynamic age…

Applications · Statistics 2014-01-14 Christina Bohk , Roland Rau

We address the problem of forecasting high-dimensional functional time series through a two-fold dimension reduction procedure. The difficulty of forecasting high-dimensional functional time series lies in the curse of dimensionality. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-03 Yuan Gao , Han Lin Shang , Yanrong Yang

Multivariate functional data present theoretical and practical complications which are not found in univariate functional data. One of these is a situation where the component functions of multivariate functional data are positive and are…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-09 Cody Carroll , Hans-Georg Müller

We develop a factor analysis for mixed continuous and binary observed variables. To this end, we utilized a recently developed multivariate probability distribution for mixed-type random variables, the Gaussian-Grassmann distribution. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-12 Takashi Arai

Semi-competing risks data arise when both non-terminal and terminal events are considered in a model. Such data with multiple events of interest are frequently encountered in medical research and clinical trials. In this framework, terminal…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-21 Fatemeh Mahmoudi , Xuewen Lu

Income and risk coexist, yet investors are often so focused on chasing high returns that they overlook the potential risks that can lead to high losses. Therefore, risk forecasting and risk control is the cornerstone of investment. To…

Applications · Statistics 2023-11-14 Xinyuan Song

The features in high dimensional biomedical prediction problems are often well described with lower dimensional manifolds. An example is genes that are organised in smaller functional networks. The outcome can then be described with the…

In the context of Bayesian factor analysis, it is possible to compute mean plausible values, which might be used as covariates or predictors or in order to provide individual scores for the Bayesian latent variables. Previous simulation…

Applications · Statistics 2021-09-21 André Beauducel , Norbert Hilger

This study presents a framework for high-resolution mortality simulations tailored to insured and general populations. Due to the scarcity of detailed demographic-specific mortality data, we leverage Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) and…

Applications · Statistics 2025-04-18 Asmik Nalmpatian , Christian Heumann

Human evaluation of generated language through pairwise preference judgments is pervasive. However, under common scenarios, such as when generations from a model pair are very similar, or when stochastic decoding results in large variations…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-30 Sayan Ghosh , Tejas Srinivasan , Swabha Swayamdipta

Although traditional literature on mortality modeling has focused on single countries in isolation, recent contributions have progressively moved toward joint models for multiple countries. Besides favoring borrowing of information to…

Applications · Statistics 2025-04-08 Giovanni Romanò , Emanuele Aliverti , Daniele Durante

Predicting the risk of in-hospital mortality from electronic health records (EHRs) has received considerable attention. Such predictions will provide early warning of a patient's health condition to healthcare professionals so that timely…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-22 Yuxi Liu , Zhenhao Zhang , Shaowen Qin , Flora D. Salim , Antonio Jimeno Yepes

Modelling and forecasting homogeneous age-specific mortality rates of multiple countries could lead to improvements in long-term forecasting. Data fed into joint models are often grouped according to nominal attributes, such as geographic…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-05 Chen Tang , Han Lin Shang , Yanrong Yang

When modeling sub-national mortality rates, it is important to incorporate any possible correlation among sub-populations to improve forecast accuracy. Moreover, forecasts at the sub-national level should aggregate consistently across the…

Applications · Statistics 2020-11-17 Han Lin Shang , Yang Yang

We derive and study a significance test for determining if a panel of functional time series is separable. In the context of this paper, separability means that the covariance structure factors into the product of two functions, one…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-18 Panayiotis Constantinou , Piotr Kokoszka , Matthew Reimherr

Widespread population aging has made it critical to understand death rates at old ages. However, studying mortality at old ages is challenging because the data are sparse: numbers of survivors and deaths get smaller and smaller with age. We…

Applications · Statistics 2018-03-29 Dennis M. Feehan

In dealing with high-dimensional data, factor models are often used for reducing dimensions and extracting relevant information. The spectrum of covariance matrices from power data exhibits two aspects: 1) bulk, which arises from random…

Applications · Statistics 2019-10-22 Xin Shi , Robert Qiu

The model implied by factor score predictors does not reproduce the non-diagonal elements of the observed covariance matrix as well as the factor loadings. It is therefore investigated whether it is possible to estimate factor loadings for…

Applications · Statistics 2019-09-26 André Beauducel , Norbert Hilger

Survival analysis provides a well-established framework for modeling time-to-event data, with hazard and survival functions formally defined as population-level quantities. In applied work, however, these quantities are often interpreted as…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-26 Xijia Liu

It has been proposed that complex populations, such as those that arise in genomics studies, may exhibit dependencies among observations as well as among variables. This gives rise to the challenging problem of analyzing unreplicated…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-08 Michael Hornstein , Roger Fan , Kerby Shedden , Shuheng Zhou