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When computing a confidence interval for a binomial proportion p one must choose between using an exact interval, which has a coverage probability of at least 1-{\alpha} for all values of p, and a shorter approximate interval, which may…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-11 Måns Thulin

An overview is presented of a general theory of statistical inference that is referred to as the fiducial-Bayes fusion. This theory combines organic fiducial inference and Bayesian inference. The aim is that the reader is given a clear…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2023-10-04 Russell J. Bowater

The ratio of Bayesian evidences is a popular tool in cosmology to compare different models. There are however several issues with this method: Bayes' ratio depends on the prior even in the limit of non-informative priors, and Jeffrey's…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2024-12-16 Luca Amendola , Vrund Patel , Ziad Sakr , Elena Sellentin , Kevin Wolz

We present a survey of some of our recent results on Bayesian nonparametric inference for a multitude of stochastic processes. The common feature is that the prior distribution in the cases considered is on suitable sets of piecewise…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-04 Denis Belomestny , Frank van der Meulen , Peter Spreij

Confidence intervals are assessed according to two criteria, namely expected length and coverage probability. In an attempt to apply the decision-theoretic method to finding a good confidence interval, a loss function that is a linear…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-18 Paul Kabaila

The formalism of quantum estimation theory with a specific focus on classical data postprocessing is applied to a two-level system driven by an external gyrating magnetic field. We employed both Bayesian and frequentist approaches to…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-05-05 Chun Kit Dennis Law , József Zsolt Bernád

Bayes [Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. 53 (1763) 370--418; 54 296--325] introduced the observed likelihood function to statistical inference and provided a weight function to calibrate the parameter; he also introduced a confidence…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-12-26 D. A. S. Fraser

Consider a linear regression model with n-dimensional response vector, regression parameter \beta = (\beta_1, ..., \beta_p) and independent and identically N(0, \sigma^2) distributed errors. Suppose that the parameter of interest is \theta…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-18 Paul Kabaila , Khageswor Giri

The practical implementation of Bayesian inference requires numerical approximation when closed-form expressions are not available. What types of accuracy (convergence) of the numerical approximations guarantee robustness and what types do…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-04-21 Houman Owhadi , Clint Scovel

Analogues of the frequentist chi-square and F tests are proposed for testing goodness-of-fit and consistency for Bayesian models. Simple examples exhibit these tests' detection of inconsistency between consecutive experiments with identical…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2016-03-16 L. B. Lucy

We argue that the Bayesian paradigm, of a prior which represents the beliefs of the statistician before observing the data, is not feasible in ultra-high-dimensional models. We claim that natural priors that represent the a priori beliefs…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-05 Ya'acov Ritov

We propose information criteria that measure the prediction risk of a predictive density based on the Bayesian marginal likelihood from a frequentist point of view. We derive criteria for selecting variables in linear regression models,…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-20 Yuki Kawakubo , Tatsuya Kubokawa , Muni S. Srivastava

Classical frequentist approaches to inference for the lasso emphasize exact coverage for each feature, which requires debiasing and severs the connection between confidence intervals and the original lasso estimates. To address this, in…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-19 Logan Harris , Patrick Breheny

Bayesian and frequentist criteria fundamentally differ, but often posterior and sampling distributions agree asymptotically (e.g., Gaussian with same covariance). For the corresponding single-draw experiment, we characterize the frequentist…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-07-04 David M. Kaplan , Longhao Zhuo

When humans infer underlying probabilities from stochastic observations, they exhibit biases and variability that cannot be explained on the basis of sound, Bayesian manipulations of probability. This is especially salient when beliefs are…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2021-07-08 Arthur Prat-Carrabin , Florent Meyniel , Misha Tsodyks , Rava Azeredo da Silveira

The main object of Bayesian statistical inference is the determination of posterior distributions. Sometimes these laws are given for quantities devoid of empirical value. This serious drawback vanishes when one confines oneself to…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2008-12-02 Federico Bassetti

This paper investigates interval estimation for a measurand that is known to be positive. Both the Neyman and Bayesian procedures are considered and the difference between the two, not always perceived, is discussed in detail. A solution is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-18 Giovanni Mana , CArlo Palmisano

A central challenge in statistical inference is the presence of confounding variables that may distort observed associations between treatment and outcome. Conventional "causal" methods, grounded in assumptions such as ignorability, exclude…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-09 Ellis Scharfenaker , Duncan K. Foley

Using a collection of simulated an real benchmarks, we compare Bayesian and frequentist regularization approaches under a low informative constraint when the number of variables is almost equal to the number of observations on simulated and…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-17 Gilles Celeux , Mohammed El Anbari , Jean-Michel Marin , Christian P. Robert

Rigorously quantifying the information in high contrast imaging data is important for informing follow-up strategies to confirm the substellar nature of a point source, constraining theoretical models of planet-disk interactions, and…

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