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Bayesian inference requires specification of a single, precise prior distribution, whereas frequentist inference only accommodates a vacuous prior. Since virtually every real-world application falls somewhere in between these two extremes,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-26 Ryan Martin

We introduce OpportunityFinder, a code-less framework for performing a variety of causal inference studies with panel data for non-expert users. In its current state, OpportunityFinder only requires users to provide raw observational data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-26 Huy Nguyen , Prince Grover , Devashish Khatwani

In causal inference, interference occurs when the treatment of one unit may affect the outcomes of other units. The goal of this work is to serve as a guide to the use of linear outcome modeling for estimating causal effects in settings…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-01 Eric Tong , Salvador V. Balkus

This paper serves as a literature review of methodology concerning the (modern) causal inference methods to address the causal estimand with observational/survey data that have been or will be used in social science research. Mainly, this…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-08-02 Guanghui Pan

A fundamental challenge in observational causal inference is that assumptions about unconfoundedness are not testable from data. Assessing sensitivity to such assumptions is therefore important in practice. Unfortunately, some existing…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-15 Alexander Franks , Alexander D'Amour , Avi Feller

This paper proposes a causal inference relation and causal programming as general frameworks for causal inference with structural causal models. A tuple, $\langle M, I, Q, F \rangle$, is an instance of the relation if a formula, $F$,…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-08 Joshua Brulé

The goal of this paper is to design a causal inference method accounting for complex interactions between causal factors. The proposed method relies on a category theoretical reformulation of the definitions of dependent variables,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-16 Rémy Tuyéras

Causal inference studies whether the presence of a variable influences an observed outcome. As measured by quantities such as the "average treatment effect," this paradigm is employed across numerous biological fields, from vaccine and drug…

Causal effect moderation investigates how the effect of interventions (or treatments) on outcome variables changes based on observed characteristics of individuals, known as potential effect moderators. With advances in data collection,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-26 Soham Bakshi , Walter Dempsey , Snigdha Panigrahi

Ensuring robust model performance in diverse real-world scenarios requires addressing generalizability across domains with covariate shifts. However, no formal procedure exists for statistically evaluating generalizability in machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-13 Daniel de Vassimon Manela , Linying Yang , Robin J. Evans

Causal inference from observational data following the restricted structural causal models (SCM) framework hinges largely on the asymmetry between cause and effect from the data generating mechanisms, such as non-Gaussianity or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-30 Kang Du , Yu Xiang

Typical causal effects are defined based on the marginal distribution of potential outcomes. However, many real-world applications require causal estimands involving the joint distribution of potential outcomes to enable more nuanced…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-17 Peng Wu , Xiaojie Mao

We describe a method for inferring linear causal relations among multi-dimensional variables. The idea is to use an asymmetry between the distributions of cause and effect that occurs if both the covariance matrix of the cause and the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2009-09-25 Dominik Janzing , Patrik O. Hoyer , Bernhard Schoelkopf

Quantile Partial Effect (QPE) is a statistic associated with conditional quantile regression, measuring the effect of covariates at different levels. Our theory demonstrates that when the QPE of cause on effect is assumed to lie in a finite…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Yikang Chen , Xingzhe Sun , Dehui Du

We propose a new factor analysis framework and estimators of the factors and loadings that are robust to certain weak factors in a large $N$ and large $T$ setting. Our framework, by simultaneously considering all quantile levels of the…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-20 Songnian Chen , Junlong Feng

This paper presents a framework for Quantum causal modeling based on the interpretation of causality as a relation between an observer's probability assignments to hypothetical or counterfactual experiments. The framework is based on the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2020-01-15 Jacques Pienaar

The capacity to address counterfactual "what if" inquiries is crucial for understanding and making use of causal influences. Traditional counterfactual inference, under Pearls' counterfactual framework, typically depends on having access to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-29 Shaoan Xie , Biwei Huang , Bin Gu , Tongliang Liu , Kun Zhang

Many frameworks exist to infer cause and effect relations in complex nonlinear systems but a complete theory is lacking. A new framework is presented that is fully nonlinear, provides a complete information theoretic disentanglement of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-12 Peter Jan van Leeuwen , Michael DeCaria , Nachiketa Chakaborty , Manuel Pulido

One of the most fundamental problems in causal inference is the estimation of a causal effect when variables are confounded. This is difficult in an observational study, because one has no direct evidence that all confounders have been…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-03 Ricardo Silva , Robin Evans

Intercausal reasoning is a common inference pattern involving probabilistic dependence of causes of an observed common effect. The sign of this dependence is captured by a qualitative property called product synergy. The current definition…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-08 Marek J. Druzdzel , Max Henrion