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This paper develops a general causal inference method for treatment effects models with noisily measured confounders. The key feature is that a large set of noisy measurements are linked with the underlying latent confounders through an…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-14 Yingjie Feng

We pose causal inference as the problem of learning to classify probability distributions. In particular, we assume access to a collection $\{(S_i,l_i)\}_{i=1}^n$, where each $S_i$ is a sample drawn from the probability distribution of $X_i…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-05-20 David Lopez-Paz , Krikamol Muandet , Bernhard Schölkopf , Ilya Tolstikhin

Causal effect estimation from observational data is one of the essential problems in causal inference. However, most estimation methods rely on the strong assumption that all confounders are observed, which is impractical and untestable in…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-14 Yubai Yuan , Annie Qu

In this work, we consider causal inference in various high-dimensional treatment settings, including for single multi-valued treatments and vector treatments with binary or continuous components, when the number of treatments can be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-26 Patrick Kramer , Edward H. Kennedy , Isaac M. Opper

We develop an efficient Bayesian sequential inference framework for factor analysis models observed via various data types, such as continuous, binary and ordinal data. In the continuous data case, where it is possible to marginalise over…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-28 Konstantinos Vamvourellis , Konstantinos Kalogeropoulos , Irini Moustaki

Understanding causal relationships is one of the most important goals of modern science. So far, the causal inference literature has focused almost exclusively on outcomes coming from the Euclidean space $\mathbb{R}^p$. However, it is…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-25 Zhenhua Lin , Dehan Kong , Linbo Wang

While rankings are at the heart of social science research, little is known about how to analyze ranking data in experimental studies. This paper introduces a potential-outcomes framework to perform causal inference when outcome data are…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-12 Yuki Atsusaka

This work extends causal inference with stochastic confounders. We propose a new approach to variational estimation for causal inference based on a representer theorem with a random input space. We estimate causal effects involving latent…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-26 Thanh Vinh Vo , Pengfei Wei , Wicher Bergsma , Tze-Yun Leong

This paper develops a Bayesian framework for robust causal inference from longitudinal observational data. Many contemporary methods rely on structural assumptions, such as factor models, to adjust for unobserved confounding, but they can…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-20 Angelos Alexopoulos , Nikolaos Demiris

The fundamental challenge of drawing causal inference is that counterfactual outcomes are not fully observed for any unit. Furthermore, in observational studies, treatment assignment is likely to be confounded. Many statistical methods have…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-01 Harsh Parikh , Carlos Varjao , Louise Xu , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Spurred on by recent successes in causal inference competitions, Bayesian nonparametric (and high-dimensional) methods have recently seen increased attention in the causal inference literature. In this paper, we present a comprehensive…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-11 Antonio R. Linero , Joseph L. Antonelli

For binary experimental data, we discuss randomization-based inferential procedures that do not need to invoke any modeling assumptions. We also introduce methods for likelihood and Bayesian inference based solely on the physical…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-25 Peng Ding , Luke W. Miratrix

We introduce a causal modeling framework that captures the input-output behavior of predictive models (e.g., machine learning models). The framework enables us to identify features that directly cause the predictions, which has broad…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Yizuo Chen , Amit Bhatia

The interpretability of prediction mechanisms with respect to the underlying prediction problem is often unclear. While several studies have focused on developing prediction models with meaningful parameters, the causal relationships…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-09-05 Patrick Blöbaum , Shohei Shimizu

Causal inference on multiple non-independent outcomes raises serious challenges, because multivariate techniques that properly account for the outcome's dependence structure need to be considered. We focus on the case of binary outcomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-11 Monia Lupparelli , Alessandra Mattei

We present a novel task that measures how people generalize objects' causal powers based on observing a single (Experiment 1) or a few (Experiment 2) causal interactions between object pairs. We propose a computational modeling framework…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-11-25 Bonan Zhao , Christopher G. Lucas , Neil R. Bramley

Adaptive designs dynamically update treatment probabilities using information accumulated during the experiment. Existing theory for causal inference from adaptive experiments primarily assumes the superpopulation framework with independent…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-26 Xinran Li , Anqi Zhao

How should researchers conduct causal inference when the outcome of interest is latent and measured imperfectly by multiple indicators? We develop a general nonparametric framework for identifying and estimating average treatment effects on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-22 Jiawei Fu , Donald P. Green

Causal inference revealing causal dependencies between variables from empirical data has found applications in multiple sub-fields of scientific research. A quantum perspective of correlations holds the promise of overcoming the limitation…

We address the problem of inferring the causal direction between two variables by comparing the least-squares errors of the predictions in both possible directions. Under the assumption of an independence between the function relating cause…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-01-25 Patrick Blöbaum , Dominik Janzing , Takashi Washio , Shohei Shimizu , Bernhard Schölkopf