Related papers: GARCH models without positivity constraints: Expon…
Modeling the time-varying covariance structures of high-dimensional variables is critical across diverse scientific and industrial applications; however, existing approaches exhibit notable limitations in either modeling flexibility or…
Generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) processes are widely used for modelling features commonly found in observed financial returns. The extremal properties of these processes are of considerable interest for…
We propose a Bayesian non-parametric approach for modeling the distribution of multiple returns. In particular, we use an asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation (ADCC) model to estimate the time-varying correlations of financial returns…
We consider the well-studied problem of predicting the time-varying covariance matrix of a vector of financial returns. Popular methods range from simple predictors like rolling window or exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) to more…
We develop two new estimators for a general class of stationary GARCH models with possibly heavy tailed asymmetrically distributed errors, covering processes with symmetric and asymmetric feedback like GARCH, Asymmetric GARCH, VGARCH and…
Previous research has shown that for stock indices, the most likely time until a return of a particular size has been observed is longer for gains than for losses. We establish that this so-called gain/loss asymmetry is present also for…
Penalized spline smoothing of time series and its asymptotic properties are studied. A data-driven algorithm for selecting the smoothing parameter is developed. The proposal is applied to define a semiparametric extension of the well-known…
We use the GARCH model with a fat-tailed error distribution described by a rational function and apply it for the stock price data on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. To determine the model parameters we perform the Bayesian inference to the…
We develop a uniform test for detecting and dating explosive behavior of a strictly stationary GARCH$(r,s)$ (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) process. Namely, we test the null hypothesis of a globally stable GARCH…
We propose a new adequacy test and a graphical evaluation tool for nonlinear dynamic models. The proposed techniques can be applied in any setup where parametric conditional distribution of the data is specified, in particular to models…
We prove that the symmetric weak GARCH limit is a geometric mean-reverting stochastic volatility process with diffusion determined by kurtosis of physical log returns; this provides an improved fit to implied volatility surfaces. When log…
The study of probabilistic models for the analysis of complex networks represents a flourishing research field. Among the former, Exponential Random Graphs (ERGs) have gained increasing attention over the years. So far, only linear ERGs…
This paper presents a procedure for testing the hypothesis that the underlying distribution of the data is elliptical when using robust location and scatter estimators instead of the sample mean and covariance matrix. Under mild assumptions…
We present a comprehensive study of graphical log-linear models for contingency tables. High dimensional contingency tables arise in many areas such as computational biology, collection of survey and census data and others. Analysis of…
In this paper, we derive some asymptotic theory for the extremogram and cross-extremogram of a bivariate GARCH(1,1) process. We show that the tails of the components of a bivariate GARCH(1,1) process may exhibit power law behavior but,…
In an era when derivatives is getting popular, risk management has gradually become the core content of modern finance. In order to study how to accurately estimate the volatility of the S&P 500 index, after introducing the theoretical…
We study, both analytically and numerically, an ARCH-like, multiscale model of volatility, which assumes that the volatility is governed by the observed past price changes on different time scales. With a power-law distribution of time…
The aim of this paper is to provide a new estimator of parameters for LARCH$(\infty)$ processes, and thus also for LARCH$(p)$ or GLARCH$(p,q)$ processes. This estimator results from minimising a contrast leading to a least squares estimator…
This paper examines volatility in REITs using a multivariate GARCH based model. The Multivariate VAR-GARCH technique documents the return and volatility linkages between REIT sub-sectors and also examines the influence of other US equity…
We study dynamical systems acting on the path space of a stationary (non-simple) Bratteli diagram. For such systems we explicitly describe all ergodic probability measures invariant with respect to the tail equivalence relation (or the…