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We study the conditional distribution of goodness of fit statistics of the Cram\'{e}r--von Mises type given the complete sufficient statistics in testing for exponential family models. We show that this distribution is close, in large…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-07-26 Richard A. Lockhart

Conditional expectations given past observations in stationary time series are usually estimated directly by kernel estimators, or by plugging in kernel estimators for transition densities. We show that, for linear and nonlinear…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-14 Ursula U. Müller , Anton Schick , Wolfgang Wefelmeyer

Autoregressive models use chain rule to define a joint probability distribution as a product of conditionals. These conditionals need to be normalized, imposing constraints on the functional families that can be used. To increase…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-27 Chenlin Meng , Lantao Yu , Yang Song , Jiaming Song , Stefano Ermon

A consistent goodness-of-fit test for distributional regression is introduced. The test statistic is based on a process that traces the difference between a nonparametric and a semi-parametric estimate of the marginal distribution function…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-10 Gitte Kremling , Gerhard Dikta

There is a serious and long-standing restriction in the literature on heavy-tailed phenomena in that moment conditions, which are unrealistic, are almost always assumed in modelling such phenomena. Further, the issue of stability is often…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-02 Yuxin Tao , Dong Li

This paper addresses the problem of fitting a known distribution to the innovation distribution in a class of stationary and ergodic time series models. The asymptotic null distribution of the usual Kolmogorov--Smirnov test based on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Hira L. Koul , Shiqing Ling

This study compares statistical properties of ARCH tests that are robust to the presence of the misspecified conditional mean. The approaches employed in this study are based on two nonparametric regressions for the conditional mean. First…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-09-04 Daiki Maki , Yasushi Ota

In this paper we consider the problem of detecting a change in the parameters of an autoregressive process, where the moments of the innovation process do not necessarily exist. An empirical likelihood ratio test for the existence of a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-12-07 Fumiya Akashi , Holger Dette , Yan Liu

We investigate the estimation of parameters in the random coefficient autoregressive model. We consider a nonstationary RCA process and show that the innovation variance parameter cannot be estimated by the quasi-maximum likelihood method.…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-03-03 Istvan Berkes , Lajos Horvath , Shiqing Ling

Using cumulative residual processes, we propose joint goodness-of-fit tests for conditional means and variances functions in the context of nonlinear time series with martingale difference innovations. The main challenge comes from the fact…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-02 Kilani Ghoudi , Naâmane Laïb , Mohamed Chaouch

We consider a stationary $AR(p)$ model. The autoregression parameters are unknown as well as the distribution of innovations. Based on the residuals from the parameter estimates, an analog of empirical distribution function is defined and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-10 Michael Boldin

In this work, nonparametric log-rank-type statistical tests are introduced in order to verify homogeneity of purely discrete variables subject to arbitrary right-censoring for infinitely many categories. In particular, the Cram\'er-von…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-01-12 Dorival Leão , Alberto Ohashi

In this article, we first propose the modified Hannan-Rissanen Method for estimating the parameters of the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) process with symmetric stable noise and symmetric stable generalized autoregressive conditional…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-25 Aastha M. Sathe , N. S. Upadhye

This article considers nonparametric regression models with multivariate covariates and with responses missing at random. We estimate the regression function with a local polynomial smoother. The residual-based empirical distribution…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-27 Justin Chown , Ursula U. Müller

A weakly dependent time series regression model with multivariate covariates and univariate observations is considered, for which we develop a procedure to detect whether the nonparametric conditional mean function is stable in time against…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-25 Maria Mohr , Natalie Neumeyer

Given a set of incomplete observations, we study the nonparametric problem of testing whether data are Missing Completely At Random (MCAR). Our first contribution is to characterise precisely the set of alternatives that can be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-19 Thomas B Berrett , Richard J Samworth

In this article, we study the asymptotic behaviour of the residual autocorrelations for periodic vector autoregressive time series models (PVAR henceforth) with uncorrelated but dependent innovations (i.e., weak PVAR). We then deduce the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-01 Yacouba Boubacar Mainassara , Eugen Ursu

We consider a linear regression model and propose an omnibus test to simultaneously check the assumption of independence between the error and the predictor variables, and the goodness-of-fit of the parametric model. Our approach is based…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-06 Arnab Sen , Bodhisattva Sen

Non-causal processes have been drawing attention recently in Macroeconomics and Finance for their ability to display nonlinear behaviors such as asymmetric dynamics, clustering volatility, and local explosiveness. In this paper, we…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-01-10 Weifeng Jin

This paper considers confidence intervals (CIs) for the autoregressive (AR) parameter in an AR model with an AR parameter that may be close or equal to one. Existing CIs rely on the assumption of a stationary or fixed initial condition to…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-12 Donald W. K. Andrews , Ming Li , Yapeng Zheng