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This paper studies the robustness of quasi-maximum-likelihood (QML) estimation in hidden Markov models (HMMs) when the regime-switching structure is misspecified. Specifically, we examine the case where the true data-generating process…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-14 Demian Pouzo , Martin Sola , Zacharias Psaradakis

We propose a novel estimation framework for path-dependent functionals of Levy processes from discretely observed data. Traditional approaches rely on Monte Carlo simulation of full paths, which requires complete model specification and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-03 Yasutaka Shimizu , Hiroshi Shiraishi

This paper investigates the quasi-maximum likelihood inference including estimation, model selection and diagnostic checking for linear double autoregressive (DAR) models, where all asymptotic properties are established under only…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-02 Hua Liu , Songhua Tan , Qianqian Zhu

Interval-censored multi-state data arise in many studies of chronic diseases, where the health status of a subject can be characterized by a finite number of disease states and the transition between any two states is only known to occur…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-19 Yu Gu , Donglin Zeng , Gerardo Heiss , D. Y. Lin

We present an outline of the theory of certain L\'evy-driven, multivariate stochastic processes, where the processes are represented by rational transfer functions (Continuous-time AutoRegressive Moving Average or CARMA models) and their…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-01-04 Robert Stelzer

This paper studies the quasi-maximum-likelihood estimator (QMLE) in a general conditionally heteroscedastic time series model of multiplicative form $X_t=\sigma_tZ_t$, where the unobservable volatility $\sigma_t$ is a parametric function of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Daniel Straumann , Thomas Mikosch

We discuss simulation schemes for continuous-time autoregressive moving average (CARMA) processes driven by tempered stable L\'evy noises. CARMA processes are the continuous-time analogue of ARMA processes as well as a generalization of…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-08-28 Till Massing

With the rapid advancements in technology for data collection, the application of the spatial autoregressive (SAR) model has become increasingly prevalent in real-world analysis, particularly when dealing with large datasets. However, the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-05 Xuan Liang , Tao Zou

We study mixture of linear regression (random coefficient) models, which capture population heterogeneity by allowing the regression coefficients to follow an unknown distribution $G^*$. In contrast to common parametric methods that fix the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-01 Hansheng Jiang , Adityanand Guntuboyina

This paper deals with nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation for Gaussian locally stationary processes. Our nonparametric MLE is constructed by minimizing a frequency domain likelihood over a class of functions. The asymptotic behavior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-11-10 Rainer Dahlhaus , Wolfgang Polonik

This paper estimates the break point for large-dimensional factor models with a single structural break in factor loadings at a common unknown date. First, we propose a quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimator of the change point based on…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-04-01 Jiangtao Duan , Jushan Bai , Xu Han

Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation requires precise knowledge of the underlying statistical model. In Quasi ML (QML), a presumed model is used as a substitute to the (unknown) true model. In the context of Independent Vector Analysis (IVA),…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-09-01 Amir Weiss , Sher Ali Cheema , Martin Haardt , Arie Yeredor

This paper investigates the Gaussian quasi-likelihood estimation of an exponentially ergodic multidimensional Markov process, which is expressed as a solution to a L\'{e}vy driven stochastic differential equation whose coefficients are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-08-14 Hiroki Masuda

We consider a stable Cox--Ingersoll--Ross process driven by a standard Wiener process and a spectrally positive strictly stable L\'evy process, and we study asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for its growth rate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-08-23 Matyas Barczy , Mohamed Ben Alaya , Ahmed Kebaier , Gyula Pap

High-frequency sampled multivariate continuous time autoregressive moving average processes are investigated. We obtain asymptotic expansion for the spectral density of the sampled MCARMA process $(Y_{n\Delta})_{n \in \mathbb{Z}}$ as…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-14 Peter Kevei

An autoregressive process with Markov regime is an autoregressive process for which the regression function at each time point is given by a nonobservable Markov chain. In this paper we consider the asymptotic properties of the maximum…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Randal Douc , Eric Moulines , Tobias Ryden

This paper investigates the estimation of the double autoregressive (DAR) model in the presence of skewed and heavy-tailed innovations. We propose a novel Normal Mixture Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation (NM-QMLE) method to address the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-30 Zhao Chen , Chen Shi , Christina Dan Wang

We propose convenient inferential methods for potentially nonstationary multivariate unobserved components models with fractional integration and cointegration. Based on finite-order ARMA approximations in the state space representation,…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-11-10 Tobias Hartl , Roland Weigand

In this paper we present a robust estimator for the parameters of a continuous-time ARMA(p,q) (CARMA(p,q)) process sampled equidistantly which is not necessarily Gaussian. Therefore, an indirect estimation procedure is used. It is an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-11 Vicky Fasen-Hartmann , Sebastian Kimmig

We undertake a detailed study of the performance of maximum likelihood (ML) estimators of the density matrix of finite-dimensional quantum systems, in order to interrogate generic properties of frequentist quantum state estimation. Existing…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2011-11-16 Raj Chakrabarti , Anisha Ghosh