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Related papers: Time-dependent AUC with right-censored data: a sur…

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Time-dependent Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) analysis is a standard method to evaluate the discriminative performance of biomarkers or risk scores for time-to-event outcomes. Extensions of this useful method to left-truncated…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-09 Kendrick Li , Mithun Kumar Acharjee

Methods for the evaluation of the predictive accuracy of biomarkers with respect to survival outcomes subject to right censoring have been discussed extensively in the literature. In cancer and other diseases, survival outcomes are commonly…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-06 Yuan Wu , Xiaofei Wang , Jiaxing Lin , Beilin Jia , Kouros Owzar

Discrimination measures such as the concordance index and the cumulative-dynamic time-dependent area under the ROC-curve (AUC) are widely used in the medical literature for evaluating the predictive accuracy of a scoring rule which relates…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-12 Marie Skov Breum , Torben Martinussen

Area under the ROC curve, a.k.a. AUC, is a measure of choice for assessing the performance of a classifier for imbalanced data. AUC maximization refers to a learning paradigm that learns a predictive model by directly maximizing its AUC…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-04 Tianbao Yang , Yiming Ying

The area under the ROC curve (AUC) is the standard measure of a biomarker's discriminatory accuracy; however, naive AUC estimates can be misleading when validation cohorts differ from the intended target population. Such covariate shifts…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-20 Jiajun Liu , Guangcai Mao , Xiaofei Wang

The identification of biomarkers with high predictive accuracy is a crucial task in medical research, as it can aid clinicians in making early decisions, thereby reducing morbidity and mortality in high-risk populations. Time-dependent…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-22 María Xosé Rodríguez-Álvarez , Vanda Inácio

While right-censored time-to-event outcomes have been studied for decades, handling time-to-event covariates, also known as right-censored covariates, is now of growing interest. So far, the literature has treated right-censored covariates…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-10 Jesus E. Vazquez , Marissa C. Ashner , Yanyuan Ma , Karen Marder , Tanya P. Garcia

In high-stakes risk prediction, quantifying uncertainty through interval-valued predictions is essential for reliable decision-making. However, standard evaluation tools like the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-05 Yuqi Li , Matthew M. Engelhard

Drawing causal inferences from observational studies (OS) requires unverifiable validity assumptions; however, one can falsify those assumptions by benchmarking the OS with experimental data from a randomized controlled trial (RCT). A major…

The ROC curve is a statistical tool that analyses the accuracy of a diagnostic test in which a variable is used to decide whether an individual is healthy or not. Along with that diagnostic variable it is usual to have information of some…

Evaluating and validating the performance of prediction models is a fundamental task in statistics, machine learning, and their diverse applications. However, developing robust performance metrics for competing risks time-to-event data…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-22 Zian Zhuang , Wen Su , Eric Kawaguchi , Gang Li

To assess the classification accuracy of a continuous diagnostic result, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is commonly used in applications. The partial area under the ROC curve (pAUC) is one of widely accepted summary…

Applications · Statistics 2011-03-11 Hung Hung , Chin-Tsang Chiang

Time-to-event forecasts are essential when decisions depend on event timing. This article develops a framework for evaluating such forecasts when the event has not yet occurred or is not predicted within the forecast horizon. We introduce a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-17 Robert J. Taggart , Nicholas Loveday , Simon Louis

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is an informative tool in binary classification and Area Under ROC Curve (AUC) is a popular metric for reporting performance of binary classifiers. In this paper, first we present a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-14 Khashayar Namdar , Masoom A. Haider , Farzad Khalvati

Assessment of risk prediction models has primarily utilized measures of discrimination, the ROC curve AUC and C-statistic. These derive from the risk distributions of patients and nonpatients, which in turn are derived from a population…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2023-12-05 Ralph H. Stern

The ROC curve is the gold standard for measuring the performance of a test/scoring statistic regarding its capacity to discriminate between two statistical populations in a wide variety of applications, ranging from anomaly detection in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-25 Stéphan Clémençon , Myrto Limnios , Nicolas Vayatis

The Area Under the the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) Curve, referred to as AUC, is a well-known performance measure in the supervised learning domain. Due to its compelling features, it has been employed in a number of studies to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-05 Pablo Andretta Jaskowiak , Ivan Gesteira Costa , Ricardo José Gabrielli Barreto Campello

The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) evaluates the separation between patients and nonpatients or discrimination. For risk prediction models these risk distributions can be derived from the…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2021-02-23 Ralph H. Stern

Risk stratification is most directly and informatively summarized as a risk distribution curve. From this curve the ROC curve, predictiveness curve, and other curves depicting risk stratification can be derived, demonstrating that they…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2009-12-17 Ralph Stern

Optimal performance is critical for decision-making tasks from medicine to autonomous driving, however common performance measures may be too general or too specific. For binary classifiers, diagnostic tests or prognosis at a timepoint,…

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