Related papers: The seasonal flight of influenza: a unified framew…
Background: Influenza A/H3N2 has been circulating in humans since 1968, causing considerable morbidity and mortality. Although H3N2 incidence is highly seasonal, how such seasonality contributes to global phylogeographic migration dynamics…
From footpaths to flight routes, human mobility networks facilitate the spread of communicable diseases. Control and elimination efforts depend on characterizing these networks in terms of connections and flux rates of individuals between…
The seasonal human influenza virus undergoes rapid evolution, leading to significant changes in circulating viral strains from year to year. These changes are typically driven by adaptive mutations, particularly in the antigenic epitopes,…
Among the realistic ingredients to be considered in the computational modeling of infectious diseases, human mobility represents a crucial challenge both on the theoretical side and in view of the limited availability of empirical data. In…
The dynamic spatial redistribution of individuals is a key driving force of various spatiotemporal phenomena on geographical scales. It can synchronise populations of interacting species, stabilise them, and diversify gene pools [1-3].…
Infectious diseases outbreaks are often characterized by a spatial component induced by hosts' distribution, mobility, and interactions. Spatial models that incorporate hosts' movements are being used to describe these processes, to…
Pathogen genome data offers valuable structure for spatial models, but its utility is limited by incomplete sequencing coverage. We propose a probabilistic framework for inferring genetic distances between unsequenced cases and known…
Human mobility is a key factor in spatial disease dynamics and related phenomena. In computational models host mobility is typically modelled by diffusion in space or on metapolulation networks. Alternatively, an effective force of…
Influenza viruses undergo continual antigenic evolution allowing mutant viruses to evade host immunity acquired to previous virus strains. Antigenic phenotype is often assessed through pairwise measurement of cross-reactivity between…
Forecasting infectious disease incidence can provide important information to guide public health planning, yet is difficult because epidemic dynamics are complex. Current mechanistic and statistical approaches often struggle to capture…
The systematic study of large-scale networks has unveiled the ubiquitous presence of connectivity patterns characterized by large scale heterogeneities and unbounded statistical fluctuations. These features affect dramatically the behavior…
H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has been recently circulating in previously unseen patterns. As the underlying causes are uncertain, we need a better understanding of the drivers of virus circulation, as they underpin the…
In this article, we focus on the analysis of the potential factors driving the spread of influenza, and possible policies to mitigate the adverse effects of the disease. To be precise, we first invoke discrete Fourier transform (DFT) to…
Human seasonal influenza viruses evolve rapidly, enabling the virus population to evade immunity and re-infect previously infected individuals. Antigenic properties are largely determined by the surface glycoprotein hemagglutinin (HA) and…
The spread of viral pathogens is inherently a spatial process. While the temporal aspects of viral spread at the epidemiological level have been increasingly well characterized, the spatial aspects of viral spread are still understudied due…
The evolutionary dynamics of human Influenza A virus presents a challenging theoretical problem. An extremely high mutation rate allows the virus to escape, at each epidemic season, the host immune protection elicited by previous…
The impact of climate conditions on influenza epidemiology has mostly been studied by addressing a singular aspect of transmission and a climate variable correlating to it. As climate change unfolds at an unprecedented rate, we urgently…
Numerous studies have attempted to model the effect of mass media on the transmission of diseases such as influenza, however quantitative data on media engagement has until recently been difficult to obtain. With the recent explosion of…
Most antigenically novel and evolutionarily successful strains of seasonal influenza A (H3N2) originate in East, South, and Southeast Asia. To understand this pattern, we simulated the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of influenza in a…
We investigate a model for spatial epidemics explicitly taking into account bi-directional movements between base and destination locations on individual mobility networks. We provide a systematic analysis of generic dynamical features of…