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In Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations, the thermal equilibria quantities are estimated by ensemble average over a sample set containing a large number of correlated samples. These samples are selected in accordance with the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-01-08 J. Li , P. Vignal , S. Sun , V. M. Calo

We provide a framework which admits a number of ``marginal'' sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms as particular cases -- including the marginal particle filter [Klaas et al., 2005, in: Proceedings of Uncertainty in Artificial…

Computation · Statistics 2023-03-08 Francesca R. Crucinio , Adam M. Johansen

Inference after model selection presents computational challenges when dealing with intractable conditional distributions. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a common method for sampling from these distributions, but its slow convergence…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-22 Sifan Liu

Any search or sampling algorithm for solution of inverse problems needs guidance to be efficient. Many algorithms collect and apply information about the problem on the fly, and much improvement has been made in this way. However, as a…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-05-19 Sarouyeh Khoshkholgh , Andrea Zunino , Klaus Mosegaard

Monte Carlo methods are used to approximate the means, $\mu$, of random variables $Y$, whose distributions are not known explicitly. The key idea is that the average of a random sample, $Y_1, ..., Y_n$, tends to $\mu$ as $n$ tends to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-01-16 Fred J. Hickernell , Lan Jiang , Yuewei Liu , Art Owen

We present a reduced-dimension, ballistic deposition, Monte Carlo particle packing algorithm and discuss its application to the analysis of the microstructure of hard-sphere systems with broad particle size distributions. We extend our…

Materials Science · Physics 2007-05-23 M. D. Webb , I. L. Davis

Estimating failure probabilities of engineering systems is an important problem in many engineering fields. In this work we consider such problems where the failure probability is extremely small (e.g $\leq10^{-10}$). In this case, standard…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-05-24 Xinjuan Chen , Jinglai Li

This paper investigates a novel a-posteriori variance reduction approach in Monte Carlo image synthesis. Unlike most established methods based on lateral filtering in the image space, our proposition is to produce the best possible estimate…

Graphics · Computer Science 2019-06-04 Oskar Elek , Manu M. Thomas , Angus Forbes

The Monte Carlo method is a powerful tool for performing radiative equilibrium calculations, even in complex geometries. The main drawback of the standard Monte Carlo radiative equilibrium methods is that they require iteration, which makes…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are routinely used to draw samples from distributions with intractable normalization constants. However, standard MCMC algorithms do not apply to doubly-intractable distributions in which there are…

Computation · Statistics 2012-07-02 Iain Murray , Zoubin Ghahramani , David MacKay

This paper introduces a class of Monte Carlo algorithms which are based upon the simulation of a Markov process whose quasi-stationary distribution coincides with a distribution of interest. This differs fundamentally from, say, current…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-14 Murray Pollock , Paul Fearnhead , Adam M. Johansen , Gareth O. Roberts

Evaluating the degree of partisan districting (Gerrymandering) in a statistical framework typically requires an ensemble of districting plans which are drawn from a prescribed probability distribution that adheres to a realistic and…

Computation · Statistics 2020-08-19 Gregory Herschlag , Jonathan C. Mattingly , Matthias Sachs , Evan Wyse

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms provide a very general recipe for estimating properties of complicated distributions. While their use has become commonplace and there is a large literature on MCMC theory and practice, MCMC users…

Computation · Statistics 2012-05-03 Murali Haran , Luke Tierney

We propose extensions and improvements of the statistical analysis of distributed multipoles (SADM) algorithm put forth by Chipot et al. in [6] for the derivation of distributed atomic multipoles from the quantum-mechanical electrostatic…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2010-07-28 Nicolas Champagnat , Christophe Chipot , Erwan Faou

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a powerful method for drawing samples from non-standard probability distributions and is utilized across many fields and disciplines. Methods such as Metropolis-Adjusted Langevin (MALA) and Hamiltonian…

Computation · Statistics 2024-10-28 Lee Devlin , Paul Horridge , Peter L. Green , Simon Maskell

We describe an MCMC method for sampling distributions with soft constraints, which are constraints that are almost but not exactly satisfied. We sample a total distribution that is a convex combination of the target soft distribution with…

Computation · Statistics 2022-10-24 Ildebrando Magnani

A part of Moliere's multiple scattering theory concerning the determination of the screening angular parameter is revised. An universal form of the Coulomb corrections to the screening angle, the exponential part of the distribution…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2014-01-31 O. Voskresenskaya , A. Tarasov

Gradient information on the sampling distribution can be used to reduce the variance of Monte Carlo estimators via Stein's method. An important application is that of estimating an expectation of a test function along the sample path of a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-12-29 Chris J. Oates , Jon Cockayne , François-Xavier Briol , Mark Girolami

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for sampling probability density functions (combined with abundant computational resources) have transformed the sciences, especially in performing probabilistic inferences, or fitting models to data.…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2018-05-23 David W. Hogg , Daniel Foreman-Mackey

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, also known as particle filters, are simulation-based recursive algorithms for the approximation of the a posteriori probability measures generated by state-space dynamical models. At any given time $t$,…

Computation · Statistics 2016-11-24 Dan Crisan , Joaquín Míguez