Related papers: Bayesian Conditional Monte Carlo Algorithms for Se…

Performing numerical integration when the integrand itself cannot be evaluated point-wise is a challenging task that arises in statistical analysis, notably in Bayesian inference for models with intractable likelihood functions. Markov…

In this paper we consider the parameter estimation problem associated to partially-observed time changed SDEs, with observations that are given at discrete times. In particular we consider both likelihood and Bayesian estimation. We develop…

This paper considers Bayesian parameter estimation of dynamic systems using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. The Metroplis-Hastings (MH) algorithm is employed, and the main contribution of the paper is to examine and illustrate…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are not only a popular tool in the analysis of state space models, but offer an alternative to MCMC in situations where Bayesian inference must proceed via simulation. This paper introduces a new SMC…

This paper presents a new approach to automatically discovering accurate models of complex time series data. Working within a Bayesian nonparametric prior over a symbolic space of Gaussian process time series models, we present a novel…

Conditional heteroscedastic (CH) models are routinely used to analyze financial datasets. The classical models such as ARCH-GARCH with time-invariant coefficients are often inadequate to describe frequent changes over time due to market…

Closed-form stochastic filtering equations can be derived in a general setting where probability distributions are replaced by some specific outer measures. In this article, we study how the principles of the sequential Monte Carlo method…

The particle Gibbs (PG) sampler is a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, which uses an interacting particle system to perform the Gibbs steps. Each Gibbs step consists of simulating a particle system conditioned on one particle path.…

Symbolic regression is a powerful tool for discovering governing equations directly from data, but its sensitivity to noise hinders its broader application. This paper introduces a Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) framework for Bayesian…

Bayesian inference in the presence of an intractable likelihood function is computationally challenging. When following a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to approximate the posterior distribution in this context, one typically…

Dynamic Bayesian predictive synthesis is a formal approach to coherently synthesizing multiple predictive distributions into a single distribution. In sequential analysis, the computation of the synthesized predictive distribution has…

Methods of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) are increasingly used for analysis of complex models. A major challenge for ABC is over-coming the often inherent problem of high rejection rates in the accept/reject methods based on…

Bayesian hierarchical modeling is a popular approach to capturing unobserved heterogeneity across individual units. However, standard estimation methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can be impracticable for modeling outcomes from…

Sequential Monte Carlo is a family of algorithms for sampling from a sequence of distributions. Some of these algorithms, such as particle filters, are widely used in the physics and signal processing researches. More recent developments…

We study the computational complexity of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for high-dimensional Bayesian linear regression under sparsity constraints. We first show that a Bayesian approach can achieve variable-selection consistency…

We present an original simulation-based method to estimate likelihood ratios efficiently for general state-space models. Our method relies on a novel use of the conditional Sequential Monte Carlo (cSMC) algorithm introduced in…

For big data analysis, high computational cost for Bayesian methods often limits their applications in practice. In recent years, there have been many attempts to improve computational efficiency of Bayesian inference. Here we propose an…

In this paper we consider Bayesian parameter inference for partially observed fractional Brownian motion (fBM) models. The approach we follow is to time-discretize the hidden process and then to design Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

Fitting stochastic kinetic models represented by Markov jump processes within the Bayesian paradigm is complicated by the intractability of the observed data likelihood. There has therefore been considerable attention given to the design of…

We introduce methodology for real-time inference in general-state-space hidden Markov models. Specifically, we extend recent advances in controlled sequential Monte Carlo (CSMC) methods-originally proposed for offline smoothing-to the…