Related papers: Application of Bayesian Methods for Age-dependent …

Accurate comparisons between theoretical models and experimental data are critical for scientific progress. However, inferred physical model parameters can vary significantly with the chosen physics model, highlighting the importance of…

The ability to accurately recognize an individual's face with respect to human aging factor holds significant importance for various private as well as government sectors such as customs and public security bureaus, passport office, and…

This paper introduces a novel Bayesian approach to detect changes in the variance of a Gaussian sequence model, focusing on quantifying the uncertainty in the change point locations and providing a scalable algorithm for inference. Such a…

Time series with multiple periodically correlated components is a complex problem with comparatively limited prior research. Most existing time series models are designed to accommodate simple periodically correlated components and tend to…

The exponential expansion of scientific literature has surpassed the epistemic processing capabilities of both human experts and current artificial intelligence systems. This paper introduces Bayesian Epistemology with Weighted Authority…

When using Bayesian inference to support conservative software reliability assessments, it is useful to consider a collection of Bayesian inference problems, with the aim of determining the worst-case value (from this collection) for a…

In this paper, we present a decision support system based on belief functions and the pignistic transformation. The system is an integration of an evidential system for belief function propagation and a valuation-based system for Bayesian…

The question of why we age is a fundamental one. It is about who we are, and it also might have critical practical aspects as we try to find ways to age slower. Or to not age at all. Different reasons point at distinct strategies for the…

There has been growing interest on forecasting mortality. In this article, we propose a novel dynamic Bayesian approach for modeling and forecasting the age-at-death distribution, focusing on a three-components mixture of a Dirac mass, a…

For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…

Stability selection is a versatile framework for structure estimation and variable selection in high-dimensional setting, primarily grounded in frequentist principles. In this paper, we propose an enhanced methodology that integrates…

Personal health analytics systems face a persistent cold-start dilemma: users expect meaningful insights early in data collection, while conventional statistical inference requires data volumes that often exceed engagement horizons.…

Automated facial age assessment systems operate in either estimation mode - predicting age based on facial traits, or verification mode - confirming a claimed age. These systems support access control to age-restricted goods, services, and…

Online algorithms for detecting changepoints, or abrupt shifts in the behavior of a time series, are often deployed with limited resources, e.g., to edge computing settings such as mobile phones or industrial sensors. In these scenarios it…

The Bayesian statistical paradigm uses the language of probability to express uncertainty about the phenomena that generate observed data. Probability distributions thus characterize Bayesian analysis, with the rules of probability used to…

This paper presents a Bayesian method for constructing Bayesian belief networks from a database of cases. Potential applications include computer-assisted hypothesis testing, automated scientific discovery, and automated construction of…

In recurrent event studies, panel binary data arise when subjects are observed at discrete time points and only the recurrent event status within each observation window is recorded. Such data frequently occur in longitudinal studies due to…

Predicting mortality-related outcomes from images offers the prospect of accessible, noninvasive, and scalable health screening. We present a method that leverages pretrained vision transformer foundation models to estimate remaining…

Some scientific research questions ask to guide decisions and others do not. By their nature frequentist hypothesis-tests yield a dichotomous test decision as result, rendering them rather inappropriate for latter types of research…

All multi-component product manufacturing companies face the problem of warranty cost estimation. Failure rate analysis of components plays a key role in this problem. Data source used for failure rate analysis has traditionally been past…